Airlines face decade wait for planes as backlog grows, IATA says

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A record order backlog for new aircraft will result in carriers waiting for as long as a decade to take delivery of new planes, according to the International Air Transport Association.

The average wait time jumped to five-and-a-half years in 2024, from two years to three years previously, according to Nick Careen, the industry body’s senior vice president for operations, safety and security. Airlines are waiting for a total of about 17,000 planes, up from 8,000 to 12,000, he said.

“No airline in the world can plan on an order today that they could receive in 2035ish,” he said. “It’s not just the aircraft. It’s almost equally challenging on the engine side.”

Even with the snarl-up, IATA projects the aviation industry’s profit will rise nearly 5% this year to $36.6 billion, propelled by growth in the Middle East and lower-than-anticipated fuel costs, according to Director General Willie Walsh. The group expect to lower its initial revenue forecast of just over $1 trillion however due to global geopolitical factors.

While the overall industry’s global growth rate will drop below 3.7% this year, its expansion in Africa will exceed that rate, Walsh said in an interview in the Kenyan capital on Tuesday.

“This year and looking forward for the next 20 years, we expect Africa to grow at about 3.7%, very similar to what we’ve seen over the past 25 years,” Walsh said.

High operating costs in Africa have been a constraint on growth to date, with jet fuel prices on the continent 17% higher than the world average and accounting for about 40% of airlines’ total costs, compared with about 25% globally.

“To be profitable, fares have to be higher here than they would be in other parts of the world,” Walsh said. “The level of profitability is very low at about $1 per passenger carried, compared to about $7 on average for the global industry.”