Why BJP thinks it is winning Rajasthan, and Congress thinks it is winning Madhya Pradesh?

BJP dropped 3.86% votes in the 2018 elections, attributed largely to people looking for an alternative CM.

Ahead of the two big Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan going to polls, there is a contrasting sense of confidence in the political camps of the main rivals, the BJP and the Congress.

The BJP thinks it is winning Rajasthan convincingly, a state ruled by Ashok Gehlot. The Congress is sure that it is winning Madhya Pradesh, a state that it won in 2018 before being dislodged from power in 15 months due to a ‘political coup’ by Jyotiraditya Scindia. This confidence in either camp is not without reason. It is reflected in how BJP can be seen playing catch-up in Madhya Pradesh and Congress is doing the same in Rajasthan to make up for the lost ground with just over a month left for voters to press EVM buttons.

The poll issues in both states have now been laid out. The Madhya Pradesh election is centred around which way the women and the OBC voters lean. The story in Rajasthan revolves around the traditional cyclic change in power, CM Gehlot’s ‘inflation-beating' welfare schemes pitted against the anti-incumbency for his MLAs and troubling issues of paper-leak and crimes against women. The BJP, by not declaring CM faces in both states, has pitted Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal against Gehlot and Kamal Nath.

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From ‘As Tight As It Gets’ to ‘Clear Edge’

Both sides claim a ‘clear edge’ in either state but the story was not so decisive five years ago, at least in terms of vote share. Madhya Pradesh saw India’s narrowest election result in 2018. Congress polled 0.13 percent fewer votes than the BJP but won 5 more seats than the BJP to come to power with the help of independents. In Rajasthan, the Congress secured 0.5 percent more votes than the BJP to win 100 seats while the BJP could win only 74 seats. The 2023 lesson hence in both states is that a slight change in vote share could mean a big upturn in fortunes.

In Rajasthan, the BJP claims it is marching ahead in vote share now. The major reason - is a strong anti-incumbency against the Congress MLAs and the state’s history of voting out the incumbent since the last three decades. Gehlot is said to have admitted, in private meetings with the high command, to the anti-incumbency against his MLAs and the need to drop some. The ticket distribution could itself be a headache with Sachin Pilot asking for fair play in it, and Gehlot retorting that Pilot is himself ‘part of the high command now.’

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The internal strife is such that Congress state chief Govind Singh Dotasra had to tick off party MLAs for not attending the march in Jaipur two days ago against BJP terming Rahul Gandhi as ‘Raavan’. BJP is also doubling down on the Gehlot-Pilot rivalry, feeling a Punjab re-run for the Congress, with both the PM and Amit Shah speaking on the same. Issues of paper leak and crimes against women, and communal overtones since tailor Kanhaiya’s killing, are dominating the Rajasthan poll landscape as well, favoring the BJP.

But Gehlot is trying to play catch-up. From a virtual last-minute announcement last week to conduct a caste census in the state if he comes to power again to announcing new districts by the dozen — Gehlot is making a last-ditch effort to bring in voters. His welfare schemes of cheap LPG cylinders, a ration scheme and free medical facilities have run their course in the state but with limited returns. Congress is solely banking on 72-year-old Gehlot’s face to try to pull off a surprise - the entire Rajasthan has hoardings with just his face.

Mama’s Farewell in MP?

The story in Madhya Pradesh seems quite the opposite with the state BJP being a divided house and Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan being unsure of his own position or chances. The central BJP has taken over the campaign, putting as many as seven MPs in the poll fray already, but not announcing Chouhan’s candidature. From asking people from the stages in rallies whether he should contest or not, Chouhan is now challenging the central leadership of the BJP by asking the people whether he should be the next CM or not.

BJP has not projected Chouhan for a reason. He has been the CM for the last 17 years, except for a 15-month gap when Kamal Nath became CM, and there is an electoral fatigue with his face. BJP dropped 3.86% votes in the 2018 elections, attributed largely to people looking for an alternative CM. The BJP is correcting this now by bringing all its senior faces into the state election battle - from Union Ministers Narendra Singh Tomar, Faggan Singh Kulaste and Prahlad Patel to the state heavy-weights like Kailash Vijayvargiya.

The Congress however is sure that the ‘sympathy’ factor for it since Nath had to step down as CM due to Scindia’s revolt, and the freebies promised by Kamal Nath would swing the election its way. The announcement of a caste census in MP by Congress is expected to swing some of the 48 percent OBC voters towards it — this is significant as OBCs have brought the BJP to power in Madhya Pradesh since 2003 with Chouhan being the party’s biggest OBC face. But with Chouhan himself on the sidelines, the Congress is going for the kill.

Also Read | Rajasthan assembly election: BJP may follow Madhya Pradesh playbook, field Union ministers

BJP has an uphill battle in the regions of Gwalior-Chambal, Indore and Jabalpur where Congress won big in 2018. Led by Nath, the party won 26 out of the 34 seats in Gwalior-Chambal, 24 out of the 37 in the Indore region, and 24 out of the 38 in the Jabalpur region. BJP then lost some seats that it had never lost for years. The BJP is hoping that its leaders like Gwalior MP Narendra Singh Tomar and former state chief and Jabalpur MP Rakesh Singh could swing their regions back as they have been put up as candidates.

It could, however, all boil down to the 49 percent women voters who in the past have favored Chouhan. The CM has tried to solidify the same with his ‘game-changer’ scheme, the ‘Mukhyamnatri Ladli Behana Yojana’, in which Rs 1,250 is being given every month to each of the 1.31 crore women in the state. But the Prime Minister has so far not even mentioned this scheme in any of his rallies in MP — indicating such freebies are not part of BJP’s philosophy. BJP now has pinned its hopes on the PM to pull back the narrative in Madhya Pradesh.