Assembly Election Results 2023: Big boost for BJP, reality check for Congress ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha polls

Assembly Election Results 2023: These elections are significant as they shape the political narrative for the coming months.

The assembly election results in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana have revealed a clear north-south divide. While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was victorious in the three north Indian states, Congress won in the south Indian state of Telangana, months after returning to power in the neighbouring state of Karnataka.

Many analysts are talking about a crucial semi-final ahead of the big battle in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but like the recently concluded Cricket World Cup, where the result was not determined by winning the semi-final, the results of these state elections have not always accurately predicted the results of subsequent national elections.

Will Today’s Outcome Impact 2024? 

In 2003, the then assembly election result fooled even a seasoned politician and strongman like LK Advani, who convinced the cabinet and his allies to bring forward the Lok Sabha elections because he expected his party to have a strong hold.

This pattern was repeated in 2009 when the BJP was again victorious in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, but in the Lok Sabha elections held just a few months later, it was the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) that came back to power at the Centre. In 2018, the Congress formed the government in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, but just a few months later, when the BJP was expected to suffer, the party managed to increase its seats under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Even though state elections can give an insight into the political landscape, the results of Lok Sabha elections cannot always be predicted accurately. Nevertheless, these elections are significant for several reasons as they shape the political narrative for the coming months, especially as three states witnessed a bipolar contest between the BJP and the Congress.

These elections may not be a barometer of the popular mood, but they give the political parties an idea of how they want to position themselves for the big battle in the coming months. For instance, after losing the elections in these states in December 2018, the BJP decided to focus on national security and went full steam with this narrative for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, following the terror attack in Pulwama in Kashmir.

Congress Claws Back In The South

Congress re-emergence as a strong force south of the Vindhyas is a consolation for the party ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. South India is sending 132 MPs to the 543-member Lok Sabha. After defeats in Gujarat, Uttarakhand and now in MP and Chhattisgarh, the party’s defeat in the north has affected its credibility to lead the recently formed INDIA alliance. The leadership of this alliance is now completely open.

However, the Congress's performance in Telangana, where it replaced the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), which had been in power since 2014 under K Chandrashekar Rao, is a clear warning to Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, and perhaps even the YSRCP in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh .

All these regional parties profess distance from the BJP but have supported its policies and favoured its laws, be it the abolition of autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir or the passage of the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). BJP has also been in turn soft on these regional parties as the central authorities have overlooked allegations of corruption against their leaders.

These elections have once again highlighted the fact that in today's world, elections are won not only with organisation and workers but also with communication and the right message. The deployment of election strategist Sunil Kanugolu and the combative leadership of 54-year-old A Revanth Reddy have paid off and strengthened the Congress.

BJP’s Hindi Heartland Strength

The BJP has once again shown that its machinery and message are intact in the Hindi heartland. The results are also an invitation to the Congress to rewrite its script. The narrative of supporting caste census without having a significant OBC leader in its national leadership and toeing a soft Hindutva line is not working.

In almost every election in the states, it has been seen that the Congress starts off quite well but ends up following the BJP’s gameplan and loses the race. Congress leaders still do not understand why someone who votes on the basis of the Hindutva line should vote for the copy when the original version is available to them.

Since the BJP contested these elections under the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi without fielding regional leaders, the results have shown that his appeal is undiminished. In Rajasthan, a long-standing feud between Sachin Pilot and Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot has hit the Congress hard. On the other hand, the faction-led BJP managed to get its leaders like Vasundhara Raje and Gajendra Sekhawat to bury their differences for the elections.

In Madhya Pradesh, it remains to be seen if Shivraj Singh Chouhan will become the CM again in view of voter fatigue with him. But his Ladli Behna Yojna giving cash handouts to women has proved to be a boon for the party.

While the BJP will rightly attribute the victory to Modi, the Congress will do its best to attribute the victory in Telangana to Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and Priyanka Gandhi's election campaigns. But they must understand that the credit goes to the local leaders. Election after election has shown that while Gandhis mobilise the public, they are no longer vote catchers.

With the results of these elections dubbed as semi-finals, the parties will go back to the drawing board to strategise for the big battle. Having won the Hindi heartland convincingly, the BJP may not have to go back to the rhetoric that the Pulwama terror attack gave it to focus on national security in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

The Congress will not be left completely without resources either, as it has two important states in Karnataka and Telangana to help it in its 2024 Lok Sabha campaign. However, it will be interesting to see what place Congress will occupy in the INDIA alliance as it has been pushed back from the Hindu heartland.