What TDP, BJD's potential 'NDA-wapsi' could mean: Poll math explained

The TDP headed by Chandrababu Naidu had exited BJP-led NDA in 2018.

In a bid to fulfil its goal of winning over 400 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has been counting on its old allies Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Biju Janata Dal (BJD )to reach the "commanding” figure.

TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu and top BJD leaders are in the process of finalising the seat-sharing talks with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The TDP, which is in alliance with Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena, is open to adding BJP to the alliance.

The TDP was a crucial part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) until 2018. The BJD had quit NDA after the 2008 riots in Kandhamal district in which alleged Hindutva supporters had attacked Christians.

TDP had exited the BJP-led NDA in 2018 due to disagreements over granting special status to Andhra Pradesh. Since then, the BJP has been working hard to emerge as an alternative in the state. However, it still does not have a legislator in the 175-member assembly. BJP's vote share in the previous assembly elections was also less than one percent.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, YSRCP won 22 out of the 25 Lok Sabha seats three seats while the TDP bagged only three. The BJP did not win any seats in the state. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP-TDP combine had fought together and had won 19 seats.

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Joining hands with the TDP will help BJP expand its footprint in the southern state where it hardly has any presence. The alliance will boost Prime Minister Narendra Modi “South Push”, which in turn will increase the BJP’s national tally. Naidu is scheduled to meet top BJP brass on March 8 evening. According to reports, the TDP is ready to offer the BJP around six Lok Sabha seats and about 15 Assembly seats.

After 15 years, the BJP and BJD are about to reunite. The BJD-BJP alliance witnessed success in two assembly elections and three Lok Sabha polls in Odisha. The state has 21 Lok Sabha seats and 147 assembly constituencies. The partnership, which was forged in February 1998, enjoyed a strong foundation. Both parties successfully contested Lok Sabha elections in 1998, 1999, and 2004 and Assembly elections in 2000 and 2004.

The state has 21 Lok Sabha seats and 147 assembly constituencies. In Odisha, Biju Patnaik-led BJD bagged 12 of the 21 seats in 2019 and 20 in 2014. The BJP bagged eight in 2019 and one in 2014. For the upcoming polls, the BJD may agree to 13 Lok Sabha seats for itself and eight for the BJP.

“The alliance will be a win-win for both parties as the BJP is more concerned about returning to power at the Centre with a record margin. With the BJD seeking a sixth straight term in Odisha, a tie-up with the BJP, the main opposition party, will also ensure a smooth victory,” a senior BJD leader told Indian Express.

BJD aims to use the alliance to curb the threat to Naveen Patnaik’s impending sixth term as Chief Minister of the state. Meanwhile, for the BJP, the 21 seats of Odisha are key to attaining the goal of more than 400 seats for the NDA.

These tie-ups with former allies are aimed at getting BJP a comfortable absolute majority in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.