Victories in Kalyana Karnataka's five seats a silver lining for Congress in state

Congress' five guarantees, which were a winning formula in the Assembly Elections, had an impact on Kalyana Karnataka.

The results from the Kalyana Karnataka region will be a significant boost to Congress. The party won five seats in this region: Bidar, Gulbarga, Bellary, Koppal, and Raichur. All these seats were won by the BJP in 2019. Bidar and Koppal, in particular, have been held by the BJP since 2014. The victories will be a silver lining for the Karnataka Congress, which underperformed in other parts of the state and failed to capitalise on the BJP's vulnerabilities.

When the campaign started, Kalyana Karnataka was essential to the Congress and BJP's game plan. For the Congress, this was a battle of prestige. This region is Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge’s home turf. A strong BJP performance on Kharge’s home turf would be a significant setback for the party. The BJP, on the other hand, saw a good performance in Kalyana Karnataka as a direct challenge to Kharge’s leadership. Therefore, with so much at stake, both sides put a lot of resources into this region.

Both Prime Minister Modi and Mallikarjun Kharge campaigned extensively in Kalyana Karnataka. In fact, Modi started his campaign in Karnataka from Kalaburgi (Gulbarga). During his campaign speech, he directly attacked the Congress and its leadership. Kharge addressed a rally in Kalaburgi, where he highlighted the developmental work his family and the Congress have done for the region. For Kharge, this was also a personal battle. In 2019, he had lost the Gulbarga seat to the BJP's Umesh Jadhav. This time, his son-in-law Ramakrishna Doddamani was contesting in his place, and it was time for payback.

The Congress won in Bidar, Bellary and Raichur with relatively comfortable margins. In Koppal, the margin was around 46,300 votes. The fight was the closest in Gulbarga, with Ramakrishna Doddamani winning with a margin of around 27,200 votes. Congress's victory is primarily due to three critical factors. Firstly, it is difficult to ignore the importance of Kharge’s leadership and direct involvement in the campaign. The Congress President's rallies and, at times, emotional appeal to the voters clearly struck a chord with the voters on the ground.

Secondly, Congress's five guarantees, which were a winning formula in the Assembly Elections, had an impact on Kalyana Karnataka. During the campaign, while Congress leaders attacked the BJP and Prime Minister Modi, they also highlighted the extensive work the party has done on the ground. At one level, Congress's campaign focused on local issues and the state government's positive work in Karnataka. Across Kalyana Karnataka, this formula has worked very well.

Thirdly, Congress built a strong voting bank that included SCs, STs, and minorities. The AHINDA coalition, which included backward classes, Dalits and minorities, has been the backbone of the Congress's electoral calculations in Karnataka. Siddaramaiah successfully brought this social coalition together during the 2023 Assembly Elections. In Kalyana Karnataka, this coalition has been mobilized by the Congress.

At the end of the day, Kalyana Karnataka would be a significant boost for the Congress. Not only were these five seats witnessing a direct fight with the BJP, they were seats where the BJP was the incumbent. Winning them would be a significant confidence booster for the local cadres and the state leadership. These victories also resulted in a decisive vote of confidence in Kharge’s leadership. At a strategic level, the Congress’s careful blend of attacking the BJP’s central leadership while at the same time keeping the focus on the party’s work on the ground has turned out to be a winning formula. The party will now have to replicate this tactic in other regions of the state where they have underperformed.

The BJP, on the other hand, will see this as a considerable setback. The Prime Minister's presence in Kalaburgi and his personal involvement in the campaign failed to turn the tide. In Gulbarga, a prestige battle between Kharge and Modi, the Congress President came on top. More concerningly, the popularity of the Congress’s five guarantees and its successful implementation on the ground is a warning sign for the party. The BJP will be out of power in Karnataka till at least 2028. This gives the Congress ample time to build on this performance and establish a firm base across Kalyana Karnataka.