The BJP-led ruling National Democratic (NDA) may improve its 2019 tally but fall short of projections made by some opinion polls, Antique Broking has said in a report.
The BJP got 303 seats on its own, ahead of the majority mark of 272, and the NDA tally climbed to 353.
The note, which came on May 17, also said that the final voter turnout could be higher in 2024, as the Election Commission has provided for postal ballot option for voters who are above 85 and those with disabilities.
Low turnout, especially in the first phase, this time has been a cause of concern but the gap has narrowed in successive phases.
On May 20, 49 seats are being voted for in the fifth phase.
The Antique Broking analysts have based their assessment on the following factors:
Postal ballots will be a surprise factor
For the first time, a postal ballot facility has been offered to the disabled and the elderly, which may lead to an upward revision in voter turnout.
“We believe that the final turnout data may increase further as the Election Commission has provided an optional postal ballot facility for the first time to voters above 85 years (8.2 million or 0.8 percent of the total electorate) and with disabilities,” the note said.
Follow our live blog for the latest on the Lok Sabha elections 2024
The report also said since there has been a significant expansion of BJP's voter base, a repeat of the 2004 trend of poor voter turnout is unwarranted. This expansion of voter base has been notable particularly among the lower income households.
Antique cited interaction with a “leading psephologist” to conclude that the ongoing welfare schemes have resulted in a “significant broad-basing” of the BJP's voter base, evident from high winning voter share in 2019.
New Optional Postal Ballot To Ramp Up Turnout?
| Particulars (In Crores) | 2024 | 2019 |
| Total Voters | 96.88 | 91.19 |
| Services Voters | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| Other Essential Services | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Disabled | 0.88 | - |
| Elders Above 85 Years | 0.82 | - |
| Eligible for Postal Ballots | 1.99 | 0.28 |
| Pct of Total Voters | 2.1% | 0.3% |
Increasingly lopsided elections
Antique Stock Broking also said lopsided elections result in a drop in voter turnout, as was the case in Gujarat and Punjab during the assembly elections. “The reason could be over-confidence or disheartenment among voters and political parties,” the note said.
The 2024 Lok Sabha election has been a case of a lop-sided fight, as reflected in opinion polls conducted earlier this year. Some of these polls claimed the NDA would win 370-410 seats in 543-member house.
Turnout and winning margin
Analysis of 2024 voter turnout along with 2019 winning margin revealed two factors.
Lower turnout may not affect BJP-held seats as the drop is mainly on seats the party won with big margin, the analysts said.
The Congress could affected more, as voter turnout has been lower in the opposition party-held seats where the winning margin was lower than 5 percent in 2019.
A similar comparison of 2014 and 2019 showed that there was a lower chance of losing a seat won by a bigger margin (more than 20 percent) due to lower voter turnout compared to the segments where the victory margin was less than 5 percent.
The note also quoted reports that claim that the BJP issued the highest numbers of political advertisements and undertook a record number of roadshows, reducing risks due to over-confidence.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
Find the best of Al News in one place, specially curated for you every weekend.
Stay on top of the latest tech trends and biggest startup news.
