Mayawati's reticence in electioneering raises eyebrows as polling nears

Mayawati became CM with 206 MLAs.

With the first phase of polling set for April 19, the political landscape in Uttar Pradesh is abuzz with activity.

However, the conspicuous absence of BSP chief Mayawati from the election fray raises questions as she refrains from holding rallies despite the announcement of elections almost 11 days ago.

In stark contrast, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already addressed four election meetings in UP, while CM Yogi Adityanath maintains a rigorous schedule, holding rallies in about three districts daily. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is also actively engaging with voters across different districts, but Mayawati’s reticence in the electoral arena is intriguing.

This reticence is not a new trend. Even during the 2022 elections, Mayawati commenced her rallies merely eight days before voting commenced. This lack of proactive engagement reflected in the election results, where the BSP secured only one seat. In the same elections, Mayawati's first rally occurred in Agra on February 2, despite voting commencing on April 10, showcasing a delayed initiation of the campaign.

As per the BSP schedule Mayawati will address her first rally in Nagpur on April 11, followed by her inaugural rally in UP on April 14, focusing on regions where the BSP holds considerable sway.

BSP leaders defend her approach, asserting that she plans to conduct a robust campaign, encompassing approximately 40 rallies throughout the election period. Additionally, Mayawati has entrusted her nephew Akash Anand as the National Coordinator, though his campaign activities commenced only recently.

Insiders in the party claim that there is disunity n the party which can be gauged from the fact that out of the 10 MPs who won last time, only one MP Girish Chandra has been made a candidate again. However, Girish Chandra's seat has been changed from Nagina to Bulandshahar.

Dwindling party baseThe BSP's electoral prospects have been dwindling, as highlighted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), with the core Jatav voter base diminishing by 35% over 15 years, leading to a decline in the party's overall vote share from 30% to 12%.

BSP is currently going through its worst phase. The party's vote percentage continued to decline in the last 4 assembly and 3 Lok Sabha elections. In the 2007 assembly elections, the party got the maximum 30.43% votes.

Mayawati became CM with 206 MLAs. The party got 25.91% votes in the 2012 assembly elections, 22.23% votes in 2017 and only 12.88% votes in the 2022 elections.

The election survey firm C Voter conducted the Mood of the Nation survey, collecting a total of 1.49 lakh samples. According to its report, the vote share of BSP is projected to decrease to 8.4% in the 2024 elections, while SP's vote share is anticipated to rise to 30.1%. In the 2019 elections, SP secured 18% of the votes.

The survey also suggests that BJP's share is likely to increase from 49% to 52%. Overall, it appears that BSP's votes are being dispersed to SP and BJP.
Political analyst Rajesh N Bajpyee highlights a discernible decline in the party's fortunes, tracing the trend back to the period between 2000 and 2014.

During this time, the party's proactive approach was evident, with candidate lists often finalized two years ahead of elections, demonstrating a fervent desire for electoral success. However, post-2014, Mayawati's level of activism began to wane, accompanied by the sidelining of other party leaders. This shift in approach has contributed to the party's diminishing influence in recent years.

As the BSP grapples with internal dissension and waning electoral support, the forthcoming elections pose significant challenges, with the party's once-formidable influence in Uttar Pradesh politics at stake.