Jharkhand opinion poll 2024: BJP-led NDA set to repeat its previous performance

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, BJP alone had bagged eleven seats.

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to win 12 Lok Sabha seats in Jharkhand, while the opposition INDIA bloc is anticipated to bag two seats in the state, according to News18 poll survey.

The News18 Mega Opinion Poll suggests that the NDA will receive a vote-share of 58 percent, while the INDIA bloc is predicted to get 32 percent vote-share and other parties together will gain 10 percent.

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Jharkhand, which has 14 Lok Sabha constituencies, witnessed a high-stakes battle during the 2019 parliamentary polls as the Bharatiya Janata Party alone bagged 11 seats, while its first-time alliance partner – All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) won one seat.

The Opposition Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the Congress secured one seat each. The Lok Sabha constituencies in the state include Rajmahal, Dumka, Godda, Chatra, Kodarma, Giridih, Dhanbad, Ranchi, Jamshedpur, Singhbhum, Khunti, Lohardaga, Palamu, and Hazaribagh.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the voter turnout was recorded at 69.1 percent. Meanwhile, BJP’s vote share was 51.6 percent, Congress received 15.8 percent, JMM’s vote share was 11.7 percent, and AJSU grabbed 4.4 percent.

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During that time, Union minister and BJP candidate Jayant Sinha won by a massive margin of 478,209 votes to retain the Hazaribagh seat, defeating Congress’ Gopal Prasad Sahu.

In the 2014 polls, when Narendra Modi was elected as Prime Minister for the first time, the Bharatiya Janata Party had won 12 seats, while the two other seats were bagged by Jharkhand Mukti Morcha.

In these polls, BJP’s vote share was 40.7 percent, while JMM got 9.4 percent, and Congress, which failed to secure any seat, had received a vote share of 13.5 percent.

JMM currently has 29 MLAs in the 81-member House, and with its alliance with the Congress, RJD, and CPI(ML)(L) together adding up to 48 seats.

The opposition NDA, which includes the BJP, All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU), and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, has 29 MLAs in all.

The government in the state is currently led by Chief Minister Champai Soren, who won the trust vote in the assembly by a 47-29 margin.

JMM and its allies have survived their first test after the arrest of Hemant Soren.