Here’s what makes UP's Saharanpur a puzzle set for a triangular battle

Saharanpur occupies a significant geographical position as it borders three states - Uttarakhand, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh.

Saharanpur in western Uttar Pradesh witnessed a political uproar in 2014 when Congress candidate Imran Masood made his infamous “boti boti” statement against the BJP's then prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi. However, Masood’s comment backfired. The 2014 Lok Sabha elections witnessed BJP candidate Raghav Lakhanpal defeat Masood by a margin of nearly 65,000 votes.

Saharanpur occupies a significant geographical position as it borders three states - Uttarakhand, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh. The Muslim-dominated constituency comprises five assembly seats: Saharanpur, Saharanpur Rural, Deoband, Rampur Maniharan, and Behat. According to reports, the combined Muslim and Dalit vote accounts for almost 64 percent out of which Muslims are 42 percent and Dalits are 22 percent.

Always ready with a surprise

A decade later, the constituency is once again set for a closely contested electoral race among prominent faces such as Congress leader Masood, BJP's Raghav Lakhanpal, and BSP candidate Majid Ali. However, Masood is all about “Ram Dhun” this time. “Ram milenge maryada se jeene mein, Ram milenge Hanuman ji ke seene mein…yeh desh Ram ka hai (You will find Ram by living a virtuous life, you will find Ram in Hanuman’s heart, this country is of Lord Ram),” Masood told News18.

Known as the ‘serial number one seat’ in the state, Saharanpur has always oscillated among the SP, BJP, and BSP. BJP’s Lakhanpal won it in 2014 but in 2019 the BSP candidate Haji Fazlur Rehman won the seat.

In the 2017 assembly elections, an alliance was formed between Congress and SP. Despite the triangular face-off with the BJP and BSP, the SP-Congress alliance won three seats. The 2022 Assembly polls witnessed more changes. The SP allied with the RLD, winning in Behat and Saharanpur. However, the BJP won in Saharanpur Nagar, Deoband, and Rampur Maniharan.

Ahead of the 2022 assembly elections, Imran Masood joined SP and then moved to BSP. However, in the run-up to the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, he returned to the Congress.

While Masood claims people will make him victorious, BJP’s Raghav Lakhanpal says he will win by a margin of 3 lakh votes. “Due to Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath’s governance models, people are supporting us even more. This will be a game-changing election. People like Masood and Majid Ali have no agenda. Politics should not be a business but a noble act to serve people…Not for changing parties and ideology every few months,” Lakhanpal told News18.

Key issue

According to a report by Times of India, flash floods remain the key issue in the constituency. The area around the temple of Shakumbari Devi in the foothills of Shivalik, which is visited by most political leaders before kick-starting their rallies, falls within the path of seasonal rivers leading to frequent flash floods. “Every year we lose several lives and vehicles. Since the ownership of the land is in private hands, the government takes little interest in alleviating the problem. This is our foremost demand to all the leaders to do something about it,” Saharanpur-based social activist Anuj Bansal told the newspaper.

Political campaigns are gradually gaining momentum in Saharanpur, which goes to polls on April 16. During his recent rally in Saharanpur, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “The situation of the Samajwadi Party is such that it has to change its candidates every hour. These people are unable to make decisions even regarding their candidates. The Congress is also unable to find candidates. Even in the constituencies that Congress considered its stronghold, it lacks the courage to field candidates. They have again released the movie 'Do Ladke' which was a flop last time.”