A BJP Sweep in Bengaluru City

Out of the four seats, Bangalore Central had the closest fights.

The BJP has managed a clean sweep across four seats in Bengaluru city. With comfortable margins, the party won Bangalore South, Bangalore North and Bangalore Rural. Bangalore Central witnessed a close fight between the BJP's P.C. Mohan and the Congress's Mansoor Ali Khan. Eventually, despite trailing in the initial phases of the counting, P.C. Mohan bagged the seat with a margin of 32,707 votes. The results undoubtedly demonstrated the BJP's strength in these urban pockets.

Out of the four seats, Bangalore Central had the closest fights. Bangalore Rural is particularly interesting as this seat was won by the Congress in 2019. Since 2014, D.K. Shivakumar’s brother, D.K. Suresh, has held the seat. In both 2014 and 2019, he won the seat with comfortable margins. D.K. Suresh’s victories reflected the Congress’s growing support base amongst Vokkaliga voters. This time, the BJP turned the table and convincingly defeated D.K. Suresh, a result that was a significant blow to Congress. This is the first time the BJP has won Bangalore Rural since its creation in 2009. Previously, this region fell under the Kanakpura Lok Sabha constituency, a seat the BJP won only once in 1998. The victory in Bangalore Rural marks a significant breakthrough for the BJP.

The BJP's success in Bangalore Rural is mainly due to the alliance with the JDS. The JDS had a substantially large vote share in this constituency when it contested on its own in 2014 and 2009. In 2009, the JDS won this seat in a three-way fight. The alliance with the JDS helped the BJP consolidate the Vokkaliga votes. The vote share data does suggest that the JDS's vote base shifted to the BJP. This boost was enough for the BJP to jump ahead of the Congress.

Bangalore South and Bangalore North were also high-profile contests. In Bangalore North, the BJP dropped the sitting MP, Sadananda Gowda and instead fielded Shobha Karandlaje. The move was made with the brewing anti-incumbency against the sitting MP in mind. While there were talks of unhappiness in the Sadanand Gowda camp, this eventually did not impact the results, with the BJP winning comfortably. Similarly, some suggestions suggested that Tejasvi Surya will have a tough fight in Bangalore South. Questions were also raised about Surya's popularity on the ground. Ultimately, despite these concerns, the BJP bagged this seat comfortably.

In Bangalore Central, the contest was much closer, with P.C. Mohan winning with a relatively small margin. Mohan has held this seat since 2009 and faced stiff competition from the Congress’s Masoor Ali Khan. Following the results, P.C. Mohan acknowledged that it was a close contest, with the Congress candidate getting strong support from polling stations in Chamrajpet and Shivajinagar. Interestingly, the Congress won the Chamrajpet and Shivajinagar Assembly Consistencies in 2023.

The BJP's spectacular performance across Bengaluru city was along expected lines. The one thing that could have worked against the BJP was the anti-incumbency factor. This was particularly true in Bangalore Central, where P.C. Mohan had been the sitting MP for three consecutive elections. Similarly, in Bangalore South, there were some murmurs of some unhappiness against Tejasvi Surya. However, the strong support enjoyed by the BJP's central leadership, particularly Prime Minister Modi, saw the BJP through. In Bangalore North, the decision to drop Sadananda Gowda worked to negate anti-incumbency.

The poor performance will be a bitter pill for the Congress. The loss in Bangalore Rural is exceptionally hard-hitting as this is a seat that the party has historically dominated. The defeat handed to a senior leader like D.K. Suresh could have further ripple effects amongst the party's state leadership. More concerningly, the results from Bangalore Rural could indicate a shift of Vokkaliga votes to the BJP. If this shifting of Vokkaliga votes is a long-term trend, it could set off alarm bells in the Congress camp. In Bangalore Central, more targeted campaigns in Assembly Segments like Mahadevapura, C.V. Raman Nagar and Rajajinagar (all held by the BJP) could have tilted the fight in the Congress's favour. Initial patterns indicate that the party performed very well in Assembly seats held by Congress.

Similarly, the Congress must return to the drawing board in Bangalore North and Bangalore South. Addressing the popularity of the BJP's central leadership will be a vital part of the Congress's future plans in Bengaluru. At the moment, while the party's state leadership is popular, it is not translating into votes in Lok Sabha elections.