BUSINESS
Budget 2023: Fiscal consolidation or populist tilt? A dilemma for the government
As elections loom in 2024, the question is if the government will switch from its hitherto conservative to realistic estimates, and show fiscal discipline or give a nod to populist schemes in the Union Budget
BUSINESS
Geopolitical factors have led to inflation, but the headache is ours
While the pace of globalisation in the current account has slowed during the past decade or so, the inter-linkages among financial markets are only getting stronger. This will have serious consequences on the real economy, and the solutions are definitely difficult, and unpopular
BUSINESS
Is the Indian economy on the brink of another twin deficit problem?
Although the twin deficits are likely to scale a new peak, the drivers of the deficits are very different from 2010-13
BUSINESS
Does a declining unemployment rate suggest economic recovery? Look closer
A low income economy (like India) with a large working-age population, and a substantial unorganised sector can witness a combination of higher LFPR and lower unemployment rate because people enter the labour force as employed
BUSINESS
India must resist an aggressive and deep rate hike cycle
While inflation is high in India, it is not at an alarming level to warrant such steep normalisation
BUSINESS
The implications of India’s top heavy economic recovery
India’s economic recovery has been K-shaped, with the listed corporate sector, central government and rich households doing well while state governments, unlisted corporates and the poor lagging
BUSINESS
Who will bear the costs of higher crude oil prices?
The central government has the room to isolate consumers from roughly 15 percent hike in international crude oil prices, and take the hit on its own income in FY23
BUSINESS
It’s clear that there is no high wage growth in India
It is highly unlikely to witness demand-led inflation in India, unlike advanced economies, wherein massive fiscal stimulus made it exceptionally good for the household sector
ECONOMY
India’s monetary policy is normalising at a gradual pace
Maintaining this balance between growth and inflation has always been very delicate in India, and the RBI seems to be handling it carefully at this stage, without tilting too much on either side
ECONOMY
There’s a disconnect between economic forecasts for 2022 and the financial markets
The differences in economic fundamentals and policy responses between India and other major advanced nations can create some issues, primarily through the currency market
BUSINESS
Excess Household Savings | A tale of two extremes
There are no excess savings in India or Indonesia, which alleviate the potential fears of over-heating and inflationary concerns in these nations. Therefore, it is necessary that Indian authorities consider these differences carefully while making appropriate policies, rather than giving too much weightage to the US
