BUSINESS
US-China trade war leaves India confronting three negative spillovers
Export controls which cause collateral damage, deliberate targeting of Indian industry by China and the overarching problem of securitization of cross-border trade pose problems. To offset these challenges, Indian diplomacy needs to work along with industry in a more coherent and effective way
WORLD
China digs in to insulate CCP from fallout of Trump tariffs
Roughly 20 percent of the Chinese workforce—around 180 million people—is estimated to be engaged in export-oriented jobs. A significant loss of employment, particularly when the economy is already under significant strain, could result in social instability
WORLD
India-China equation reset is at a new normal, not the old one
Power asymmetry between the two countries and the likelihood of just a limited easing in the trade relationship make going back to pre-2020 phase impossible. Moreover, there’s no evidence of a dialogue yet on next step towards de-escalation. Keep your fingers crossed and expectations contained
BUSINESS
Quad, through Chinese lens
Chinese opinions on the Quad converge on one point, that it’s a US-led tool of containment. However, there are mixed opinions on the effectiveness of the wider Quad agenda. On India, Chinese portrayal depicts the country as an opportunistic and wavering partner of the US
BUSINESS
Biden-Xi Summit: Challenge is to continue US-China engagements despite tensions
There are deep and fundamental differences and stressors between the US and China that preclude any major breakthroughs or a new detente or a grand bargain coming out of the Xi-Biden meeting. A commitment to continued engagement, as has been happening in the run-up to this meeting between both sides, and reviving military-to-military dialogue would be a good outcome
BUSINESS
What China’s missing officials tell us about its politics
With Xi Jinping elevating himself to a stature only enjoyed by Mao in the past, there is greater possibility of tumult and personnel purges at different levels of the Chinese party-state system. While these have created ripples across the Chinese system of elite politics and among its observers outside, they are unlikely to undermine Xi’s authority in the near term
BUSINESS
China Economy: Has the export-investment-state-driven growth model reached its limits?
Weakening trade with the US and EU, ballooning real estate debt, a consumption slump and the private sector’s inability to create jobs are the defining features of the China slowdown. But is this just short-term pain or something that can be remedied with a fresh dose of policy innovations?
BUSINESS
Three factors that prevent India and China from getting close
Bilateral trade between China and India will expand, but in today’s era politics trumps economics. Three structural factors – clashing zones of influence, China leveraging its asymmetry at the border, and India’s proximity to US – will keep the relationship difficult and volatile
