BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | High Hopes
This is not a time for balance, it's a time to be bold, a time of dreaming big, of seizing India's moment
BUSINESS
Budget Snapshot | A long view of India’s central government budgets
Budget 2024-25: This time, the big question is: will the government increase revenue spending because of all the worries about demand being tepid, or will it go back to its original blueprint of curtailing government spending in accordance with its "less government, more governance" slogan?
BUSINESS
Union Budget 2024: The myth of central government neglect of social sectors
Budget 2024-25: Budgetary allocations to agriculture, housing and rural development have all increased, as a percentage of GDP
BUSINESS
Global Fund manager survey: The shape of things to come
More than a fifth of the participants in the Bank of America Asian fund manager survey are looking to forego China equities altogether and pursue opportunities elsewhere. The Japanese, Indian and Taiwan markets are big beneficiaries
BUSINESS
Will the Third Plenum turn things around for China?
This time, the Third Plenum is very important as the Chinese economy is facing a multitude of challenges. So much so that the Chinese authorities are issuing denunciations of social media posts in China that talk of the country being in "the garbage time of history"
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | A piece of cake
This Budget, the finance minister can have her cake and eat it too
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: The importance of government subsidies for semiconductor manufacturing
A recent NBER paper calculates that for every $1,000 in GDP, India, South Korea, and China have each spent $55, $51, and $42, respectively, on semiconductor policies
BUSINESS
Job growth in FY24 highest in more than 40 years
According to the KLEMS database, total employment in the Indian economy increased by as much as 46.7 million in 2023-24, up from 19.2 million in 2022-23. In 2020-21, during the depths of the pandemic, the database says 31.2 million jobs were added
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Dizzying Heights
Tiger got to hunt, bird got to fly; Man got to sit and wonder, why, why, why?--Kurt Vonnegut
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: The power of narratives
An NBER research paper says narratives may be a significant cause of the business cycle
BUSINESS
Bank for International Settlements on what could go wrong for the global economy
BUSINESS
Falling prices of Chinese exports have helped inflation come down in India
The Bank for International Settlements says China’s export drive has acted as a global disinflationary force for importing countries, with India being among the biggest beneficiaries
BUSINESS
Budget Snapshot | Consumption push or investment-led growth?
The share of private consumption in GDP at constant prices in 2023-24 was the lowest since 2017-18—should the government therefore boost consumption in the Budget?
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Cyclical, Structural or Delusional?
In view of structural reforms, there is a case for valuations higher than the long-term average for Indian equities. The question is: how much higher?
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | The RBI Governor’s gambit
In this edition of Moneycontrol Pro Panorama: RBI warns of headwinds for microfinance sector, US keen to revisit international trade rules, what's troubling central government's capex, Teesta treaty now a lost cause time for Bangladesh, and more
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: Why the US wants to rewrite rules of international trade
An NBER working paper by economists Joseph Stiglitz and Martin Guzman analyses why neoliberal globalisation failed and why the US is embracing industrial policy
BUSINESS
Government survey of unincorporated enterprises provides further proof of rural distress
Not only are the predominantly informal workers paid a pittance, but the increase in rural wages for this category was a mere 0.55 percent over the period between April 2021—March 2022 and October 2022-September 2023
BUSINESS
RBI researchers predict higher growth, lower inflation than forecast by MPC for 2024-25
While the State of the Economy report is upbeat on the domestic economy, it finds plenty of warning signs about the US economy
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: Where will the jobs come from?
A paper by well-known development economist Dani Rodrik and Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz says that the changed global economy needs new strategies that focus on job growth in developing countries
BUSINESS
India’s goods exports are up, but they are only back to 2022 levels
Total exports in May 2022 were USD39 billion, compared to USD 38.1 billion in May 2024. The saving grace is that non-petroleum products exports are slightly higher
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: All is well
It would be great if we could have our cake and eat it too -- get a push to consumption while keeping up the capex blitz
BUSINESS
IIP: What ails manufacturing in India?
Manufacturing growth has had a CAGR of just 2.67 percent in the six years to April 2024 and of 23 major industry groups, 10 have had a negative CAGR
BUSINESS
A tale of three inflations, with a twist at the end
Three major economies — US, China and India — reported inflation data. The overall conclusion is that emerging markets look attractive. But there's a fly in the ointment
BUSINESS
The depressing message from the Household Consumption survey
The top 5 percent in urban India spent 2.6 times more on cereals than the poorest 5 percent. And they spent one and a half times as much on cereals than those in the 40-50 percent fractile, which is Middle India. A similar gap exists in cereal consumption between the rich and poor in rural India. The point is: if they had the means, the poor would increase their intake of cereals, or consume a better quality of cereals
