BUSINESS
Capex to GDP ratio in April-June 2024 highest since September 2012 quarter
There were widespread fears of capex being lower in the June 2024 quarter, on account of the general elections. So the rise in capex in the Q1 FY 25 GDP data is a reflection of the cyclical return of private capex after many years
BUSINESS
Fitch Ratings to India: Close, but no cigar
The key risk, says Fitch, "is if this private investment cycle does not materialise as a result of subdued consumption, which would weigh on job creation and dampen potential benefits from India's demographic dividend"
BUSINESS
What to look for in the GDP data for the April-June 2024 quarter
The most important thing to look out for is whether consumption growth has strengthened, which would not only indicate that the benefits of high GDP growth are trickling down, but also lead to a pick-up in corporate capex
BUSINESS
What the income tax data tell us about the premiumisation trend
If there was ever a shade of doubt left about the K-shaped recovery and the consequent premiumisation trend, the income tax data for FY2023 should clear it
TECHNOLOGY
Decoding Economics: Who uses Generative AI and for what?
A World Bank research paper on Generative AI examines the adoption rates of various generative AI tools, identifies the factors influencing usage, and explores the impact of generative AI tools on traffic to other websites and on people’s online activities
BUSINESS
The disconnect between the reaction of Fed Funds market and US equities after Powell’s speech
While the probabilities for the Fed Funds rate have barely budged, the US equity market rallied hard after the Fed chief’s Jackson Hole speech
BUSINESS
Have central banks pulled off a soft landing, or are they just plain lucky?
Many factors, apart from central bank actions, are responsible for the soft landing
BUSINESS
Is there really a structural change in bank deposit growth?
An RBI study in 2019 found that the impact of higher market returns on a shift away from bank fixed deposits is limited to the short-term
BUSINESS
Industrial production shrinks in June from the previous month
Consumer durables production in June contracted by 2.53 percent from the previous month, while consumer non-durables output shrank by 5.86 percent
BUSINESS
Low July inflation entirely due to base effect, month-on-month inflation has gone up
The rise in month-on-month retail inflation from 1.33 percent in June to 1.42 percent in July is mainly due to the rise in mobile telephony charges
BUSINESS
RBI surveys indicate the Indian economy slowed in Q1, what are the expectations for Q2?
Looking ahead to Q2, RBI surveys show consumer optimism has taken a hit, as has the industrial outlook and loan demand prospects. The services and infrastructure sectors, however, are showing increased optimism
TRENDS
Bangladesh’s much-vaunted economic success was built on sand
After making Bangladesh effectively a one-party state, Sheikh Hasina’s source of legitimacy depended on the strength of the economy, or her record of ‘development’. When the economy unravelled, so did her legitimacy
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: A 2019 IMF paper predicted how the yen carry trade would unwind
The paper said that large and sharp appreciations and the unwinding of the yen carry trade run the risk of lowering actual and expected inflation, squeezing corporate profits, and generating a negative wealth effect through depressed equity prices
BUSINESS
What the budgetary allocations tell us about government priorities
The share of the highways and railway ministries in total central government budgetary spending has gone up since pre-pandemic times, but the share of the education and health sectors has been whittled down
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics | Stock picking is alive and well
An NBER paper says changes in portfolio weights explain the largest share of price changes at the individual stock level for all countries, with non-index or active funds being the main driver
BUSINESS
Growing remittances an excellent example of India’s demographic dividend
RBI report says the ratio of remittances to GDP in India has gradually increased from 2.8 per cent in 2000 to 3.2 per cent in 2023 and is now above that of gross FDI inflows to GDP ratio, which was 1.9 per cent in 2023
BUSINESS
July Flash PMI signals strong growth, higher inflation
Selling prices rose to the greatest extent since February 2013
BUSINESS
A Budget remarkable chiefly for what was left unsaid
Budget 2024-25: It remains to be seen whether policy continuity, sans new reforms, will be sufficient to support elevated equity valuations
BUSINESS
Spot a fresh whiff of realism in the Economic Survey
The underlying message of the Economic Survey is that in today’s uncertain global environment riven by geopolitical uncertainties, the domestic economy must take the lead and it is up to the private sector to step up to the plate and deliver
BUSINESS
Budget Snapshot | A long view of India’s central government budgets
Budget 2024-25: This time, the big question is: will the government increase revenue spending because of all the worries about demand being tepid, or will it go back to its original blueprint of curtailing government spending in accordance with its "less government, more governance" slogan?
BUSINESS
Union Budget 2024: The myth of central government neglect of social sectors
Budget 2024-25: Budgetary allocations to agriculture, housing and rural development have all increased, as a percentage of GDP
BUSINESS
Global Fund manager survey: The shape of things to come
More than a fifth of the participants in the Bank of America Asian fund manager survey are looking to forego China equities altogether and pursue opportunities elsewhere. The Japanese, Indian and Taiwan markets are big beneficiaries
BUSINESS
Will the Third Plenum turn things around for China?
This time, the Third Plenum is very important as the Chinese economy is facing a multitude of challenges. So much so that the Chinese authorities are issuing denunciations of social media posts in China that talk of the country being in "the garbage time of history"
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: The importance of government subsidies for semiconductor manufacturing
A recent NBER paper calculates that for every $1,000 in GDP, India, South Korea, and China have each spent $55, $51, and $42, respectively, on semiconductor policies
