BUSINESS
Government numbers show share of workers in informal sector has increased in last five years
The percentage of workers employed in agriculture has increased from 42.5 percent in 2018-19 to 46.1 percent in 2023-24
BUSINESS
Government employment data reveal why household consumption demand has been low
The average earnings of both self-employed and salaried workers, after adjusting for inflation, have shrunk in the last five years
BUSINESS
Strong case for a policy rate cut -- The RBI Bulletin’s State of the Economy report
The report projects inflation to be sustained at below 4 percent in 2025-26 and GDP growth at well below the Indian economy’s potential growth rate. That makes a clear case for the central bank to start cutting the policy rate
BUSINESS
Will Fed rate cuts drive fund flows into emerging markets?
A BIS study identifies several factors that affect flows to emerging markets: interest rate differentials, the level of the USD, the level of the VIX, and finally there are the factors collectively called ‘’financial conditions’’. These are all proxies for gauging risk appetite
BUSINESS
Core inflation to stay down as wholesale prices of manufactured goods fall
Within manufactured products, the principal sector that saw its WPI decline substantially month-on-month was basic metals
BUSINESS
How a rising dependency ratio has forced China to increase its retirement age
According to the UN Population projections, India’s and China’s dependency ratios will be equal, at 44.6, in 2032. However, this ratio then starts to go up for China in leaps and bounds and by 2050, it’ll be at 69.1 percent, while India’s is projected to be a much lower 48.1 percent at that time
BUSINESS
Read these market signals ahead of the first Fed rate cut since March 2020
At the beginning of the week, the Fed Fund futures are signalling a 50 percent probability that the Fed will cut the policy rate by 50 basis points on September 18
BUSINESS
What the July IIP numbers say about consumption, capex
Consumer durables production was up a strong 8.21 percent, but the output of consumer non-durables was lower by 4.36 percent from a year ago
BUSINESS
August CPI shows encouraging signs in food disinflation
If we take the index values, the consumer price index was at 193 both in July and in August. In other words, month-on-month inflation for August is zero
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: The impact of AI and what it means for investors
Two research papers from the Bank for International Settlements, a report from the International Labour Organisation and a Goldman Sachs Global Strategy paper, consider the likely effects of AI
BUSINESS
World Trade Report highlights dangers of the new power-based world order
The old rules-based system of the global economy, of which the WTO was the lynchpin, is now defunct. It has been replaced by protectionism, geopolitical trade blocs, beggar-thy-neighbour policies and a focus on security
BUSINESS
Jumpy markets fret about risks to soft landing
While the US market was rocked by the downward revisions to the jobs data on Friday, Fed Funds futures are still pricing in only a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 18 Fed meeting
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: Will China’s 'overcapacity' lead to a flood of exports, hurting other countries?
A recent IMF working paper assesses the importance of China’s subsidies in shaping its exports and imports, and sheds light on the implications that China’s industrial policy can have for its trading partners
BUSINESS
World Bank calls upon India to lower tariff barriers to boost exports
The World Bank says that while geopolitics has increased the opportunities for India’s growth, India’s trade policies need to change to be able to seize those opportunities
BUSINESS
Capex to GDP ratio in April-June 2024 highest since September 2012 quarter
There were widespread fears of capex being lower in the June 2024 quarter, on account of the general elections. So the rise in capex in the Q1 FY 25 GDP data is a reflection of the cyclical return of private capex after many years
BUSINESS
Fitch Ratings to India: Close, but no cigar
The key risk, says Fitch, "is if this private investment cycle does not materialise as a result of subdued consumption, which would weigh on job creation and dampen potential benefits from India's demographic dividend"
BUSINESS
What to look for in the GDP data for the April-June 2024 quarter
The most important thing to look out for is whether consumption growth has strengthened, which would not only indicate that the benefits of high GDP growth are trickling down, but also lead to a pick-up in corporate capex
BUSINESS
What the income tax data tell us about the premiumisation trend
If there was ever a shade of doubt left about the K-shaped recovery and the consequent premiumisation trend, the income tax data for FY2023 should clear it
TECHNOLOGY
Decoding Economics: Who uses Generative AI and for what?
A World Bank research paper on Generative AI examines the adoption rates of various generative AI tools, identifies the factors influencing usage, and explores the impact of generative AI tools on traffic to other websites and on people’s online activities
BUSINESS
The disconnect between the reaction of Fed Funds market and US equities after Powell’s speech
While the probabilities for the Fed Funds rate have barely budged, the US equity market rallied hard after the Fed chief’s Jackson Hole speech
BUSINESS
Have central banks pulled off a soft landing, or are they just plain lucky?
Many factors, apart from central bank actions, are responsible for the soft landing
BUSINESS
Is there really a structural change in bank deposit growth?
An RBI study in 2019 found that the impact of higher market returns on a shift away from bank fixed deposits is limited to the short-term
BUSINESS
Industrial production shrinks in June from the previous month
Consumer durables production in June contracted by 2.53 percent from the previous month, while consumer non-durables output shrank by 5.86 percent
BUSINESS
Low July inflation entirely due to base effect, month-on-month inflation has gone up
The rise in month-on-month retail inflation from 1.33 percent in June to 1.42 percent in July is mainly due to the rise in mobile telephony charges
