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DATA STORY: Can the US intercept a North Korean missile flying towards it?

If a North Korea fires a missile, the US will have to come up with a response within minutes to neutralise the threat and avoid loss of lives

September 12, 2017 / 16:22 IST
A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor is launched during a successful intercept test, in this undated handout photo provided by the U.S. Department of Defense, Missile Defense Agency. THAAD provides the U.S. military a land-based, mobile capability to defend against short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, intercepting incoming missiles inside and outside the earth's atmosphere. REUTERS/U.S. Department of Defense, Missile Defense Agency/Handout via Reuters ATTENTION EDITORS - FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR SALE FOR MARKETING OR ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS. THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. IT IS DISTRIBUTED, EXACTLY AS RECEIVED BY REUTERS, AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS - TM3EBAC0VPZ01

A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor is launched during a successful intercept test, in this undated handout photo provided by the U.S. Department of Defense, Missile Defense Agency. THAAD provides the U.S. military a land-based, mobile capability to defend against short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, intercepting incoming missiles inside and outside the earth's atmosphere. REUTERS/U.S. Department of Defense, Missile Defense Agency/Handout via Reuters ATTENTION EDITORS - FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR SALE FOR MARKETING OR ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS. THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. IT IS DISTRIBUTED, EXACTLY AS RECEIVED BY REUTERS, AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS - TM3EBAC0VPZ01

The global pitch against North Korea's show of nuclear mettle is getting shriller by the day. The hermit nation's response has been increasingly arrogant as it readily accepts the possibility of more potent nuclear tests and an attack on Guam - an unincorporated and organised territory of the United States.

The discourse among conflict analysts and columnists has gone a step further and considered the possibility of a North Korean nuclear missile attack on mainland United States.

Whether North Korea will take such a step is best left to their conscience but a potential offensive against the world's most powerful military raises a question: Can the US protect itself from such an occurrence?

David Wright, a physicist and co-director of the Union of Concerned Scientists' Global Security Program, wrote in a blog post back in July that as many as five major US cities, namely, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston and Denver were in the range of North Korea's missiles.

The capital of the United States, Washington DC, will be safe as it will fall short of the range of North Korea's recently tested successful missile - the Hwasong-14.

Infographic: The U.S. Cities In Range of North Korea's ICBM | Statista

However, in such an event, the US will have only minutes to neutralise the threat.

Inside Uncle Sam's hat

The US has a number of options to decimate an incoming North Korean nuclear missile. Going by the numbers the most appropriate and rather controversial is US Army's Terminal High Altitude Area Defense or THAAD missile defence system.

After North Korea conducted its most potent nuclear test yet in September 2017, South Korea's defense ministry deployed the four remaining THAAD launchers adding to the two launchers already present in its territory.

Infographic: Can The U.S. Intercept A North Korean Missile? | Statista

THAAD has a 100 percent accuracy rate, as per the US Missile Defense Agency, who say that the system hit 13 targets in 13 attempts up to May 2017.

Also Read: How terrifying is North Korea’s nuclear threat?

Another option that the countries can rely on is the Aegis missile defence system that is fitted on the US and Japanese vessels. The system has an 83 percent success rate in tests with just seven failures until now. Though its missiles cannot tackle ICBMs, they are capable of destroying ballistic missiles.

Infographic: Military Manpower Around The Korean Peninsula | Statista

US' surface to air missile system - Patriot - is used by South Korea and Japan. It has a shorter range but it is more potent in protecting strategic targets rather than larger areas.

Mixed Results

According to a Reuters report, not everyone agrees other than the Pentagon that the US can deal with a North Korean missile threat.

Pentagon spokesman Navy Captain Jeff Davis had told Reuters earlier in July this year that they confident of their ability to defend themselves but he also acknowledged the test program’s track program was not perfect while speaking about a successful test in May in which a US-based missile interceptor knocked down a simulated incoming North Korean ICBM.
“It’s something we have mixed results on. But we also have an ability to shoot more than one interceptor,” Davis said.

The report further states that test records of the US Missile Defense Agency (MDA), charged with the mission to develop, test and field a ballistic missile defense system, also show mixed results.

In the latest developments, UN has unanimously accepted the US-drafted proposal of fresh sanctions on North Korea which, according to US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, will give them a "much better chance to halt the regime's ability to fuel and finance its nuclear and missile programs".

As expected, and continuing the merry-go-round, North Korea has responded by saying that "if the US adheres to sanctions and pressure it will face unprecedentedly resolute counteraction it cannot hold control of."

first published: Sep 12, 2017 02:54 pm

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