How Gujarat was won: Modi, dynasty, asmita, the 'Pak conspiracy' and Congress’ own goals

Narendra Modi

Praveen Rai

The assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh have once again brought the ‘Modi wave’ into the public spotlight as the BJP heavily banked on the charisma and demagogic firepower of its supremo. The ‘wave’ election was one of the many entries in the compendium of Indian politics made popular in public discourse by the ‘Modi wave’ of the 2014 general elections.

The ‘Modi wave’ gained strength and progressively escalated in provincial elections, enabling the saffron party to stamp its political dominance in states previously ruled by the Congress. The wave remained unabated and in crest mode, barring a few troughs in states ruled by strong regional satraps and finally reaching a winning crescendo in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand state elections in the beginning of 2017.

The defining reason for saffron victories in UP and Uttarakhand was the bold decision of demonetisation by PM Modi, a political script aimed at curbing black money and epidemic financial corruption in the country. It was a reformist economic policy with a political spinoff as it overnight created a subaltern and pro-poor image of Modi, thereby paying rich electoral dividends to the saffron party in the state elections. An emboldened BJP initiated a big-ticket economic reform, the Goods and Services Tax (GST), a progressive public policy that had been gathering dust in India. The principal opposition parties, which supported the GST on earlier occasions, did a volte-face, and with the support of economists with centre-to-Left leanings, vociferously slammed it as ‘drastically disruptive’. They argued that the move would not only slow the growing Indian economy, but would also have a negative impact on the small and medium enterprises in the country.

The Congress made GST a compelling electoral issue in Gujarat elections, hoping that in unison with critical state and localised issues, it would snowball into a major vote swing in its favour and dislodge the BJP from its traditional stronghold.

The election was one of the most fiercely fought state electoral competitions; pitting the indomitable Modi against a spirited Rahul Gandhi on issues that were in disjunct with the concerns of the people of Gujarat. It became a prestige contest for Modi, with both the BJP and Congress donning the battle fatigues to defeat each other. The election trends reveal that the BJP warded off the stiff challenge from Congress and would finally manage to win a comfortable majority in the state assembly, albeit far short of its ambitious target of winning 150 assembly seats. The electoral takeaway for the Congress would be more substantial than the BJP, as it would technically win more than 30 seats, as the party tally before the elections in Gujarat stood at 44 due to defections and horse-trading of its legislators.

A quick preview of the electoral build up in Gujarat reveals that the political topography was visibly loaded against the state BJP due to the mishandling of the agitation led by Hardik Patel’s Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) in 2015 demanding reservations for the Patel community. The situation worsened further due to a spate of atrocities against the member of Dalit communities by fringe groups in the name of cow protection. The catchphrase ‘Vikas Gando Thayo Che’ (Development has gone crazy) became viral on social media platforms, revealing a serious trust deficit of Guajarati populace with the incumbent BJP government. The Congress jumped on the bandwagon and launched a scathing attack on the Gujarat model of development and its chief protagonist Modi, to take an early electoral advantage. The BJP used its state might in delaying the dates of election for creating a level playing field by neutralising the upbeat Congress. The state government distributed sops with abandon, including a waiver of GST to land tillers using micro farm equipments, hiking allowances and maternity leaves to contractual employees, monetary benefits to accredited social health activists, expansion of Ahmedabad Metro rail project and a substantial state grant to the agitating Patel community.

The reasons for the BJP getting a mandate for the sixth time in a row are manifold, but it was mainly due to the following: Firstly, while Rahul Gandhi attacked the BJP by punching holes in the development model and the distress caused to citizens of the state, Modi turned the electoral narrative on its head by accusing the Congress of dynastic politics and corruption, which struck a chord with the electorate and kept the BJP’s support base intact. Secondly, Modi played the son of the soil card and Gujarati Asmita (Pride), and hit out at the Nehru-Gandhi family’s ‘historical disrespect’ of political leaders from Gujarat and injustices done in the past. The BJP voters believed that Rahul Gandhi was a rank outsider and stuck with the saffron party. Thirdly, the caste arithmetic of the Congress did not click as the alliance stitched with Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mewani did not result in a complete transfer of votes for each other at ground zero. Fourthly, Rahul Gandhi played the ‘Soft Hindutva’ card by visiting Hindu temples and refrained from meeting Muslim groups to avoid a Hindu-Muslim vote divide. However, Modi played the Congress-Pakistan ‘conspiracy’ against him to consolidate Hindu votes for the BJP. Finally the twin self-goals by the Congress leaders: Kapil Sibal asking the Supreme Court to adjourn the judgment of the Babri Masjid case and Mani Shankar Aiyar’s derogatory comment on Modi’s caste identity.

The Gujarat election results will have an impact on national politics and Indian economy. Politically, it would provide the BJP a headstart in the next national elections. But it has to safeguard itself from the Congress, which seems to be in a resurgent mode. The political stature of Rahul Gandhi after his elevation as the Congress president would certainly grow and make him a serious challenger to Narendra Modi. The Congress could become a centre of gravity for the beleaguered Opposition parties and forge a strong opposition unity index that could shorten the political hegemony in the country. Economically, the Gujarat election was a pilot trial of GST, and the saffron party seems to have passed the litmus test. The voters believed in the long-term benefits for the country, and the mandate is a sample affirmation of the faith of the people in the economic policies pursued by the Modi government. The electoral victories in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh provides the momentum to the saffron party to embark on the next generation of economic reforms, with focus on the needs and concerns of the common man to achieve the great Indian dream of a better quality life.

Praveen Rai is a Political Analyst at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi. His areas of interest include politics, electoral competitions and opinion polling in India.