Yunus struggles to calm Bangladesh’s political tempest: Why India is watching closely

Once again, Dhaka is at a political crossroads. Interim Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, who was seen as a stabilising figure during turmoil in the country last year, now finds himself at the centre of a growing storm amid intensifying demands to hold national elections by December.

Major opposition parties, including former PM Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), are demanding a definitive election timeline, and that they be held latest by December this year.

But the pressure isn’t just political. The military establishment in Bangladesh is also growing impatient. Discontent is also spilling into the bureaucracy, where civil servants are launching protests over stalled governance and authoritarian decision-making.

Political parties and military demand timeline

Tens of thousands of students and youths linked to BNP rallied in Dhaka on Wednesday calling for a general election in December. Wednesday's rally was held after weeks of political tensions after Yunus threatened to quit and the influential military chief publicly declared his support for an election in December.

The BNP recently met with Yunus and reiterated its demand for an election in December, saying that if Yunus quits, the country will find an alternative leader. But Yunus' associates later said he was staying.

Yunus promised to hold an election by June 2026, depending on the extent of reforms it has undertaken. The BNP, which is hopeful of forming the next government in absence of Hasina's Awami League, said the pace of implementation of reforms should not be an excuse to delay the election and argued that the reform is a continuous process.

Smaller Islamist and centrist parties have joined the chorus, warning that the longer Yunus delays, the greater the public backlash.

However, more alarming for Yunus is the shift in tone from the military. The armed forces, which backed his appointment as a neutral administrator, are now signaling impatience. Senior officers reportedly believe Yunus is overreaching his temporary mandate, and some are advocating a clear political exit strategy.

The rift between Yunus and Army Chief Waker-Uz-Zaman has been evident recently, with the latter advocating for elections latest by December 2026. Zaman had also expressed his anger on the proposed Rakhine Corridor – a “humanitarian” passage from south-eastern Bangladesh into Myanmar’s conflict-ridden Rakhine State - deeming it a threat to national sovereignty, and terming it a “bloody corridor”.

Civil service revolt

Beyond political and military pressure, Yunus is facing a new and unexpected challenge: dissent within the civil bureaucracy. Thousands of civil servants across Bangladesh recently launched protests, sit-ins, and work slowdowns, accusing the caretaker government of arbitrary administrative reshuffles, wage stagnation, and centralisation of power.

Yunus refuses to step down

After initially threatening to step down amid the growing political uncertainty in Bangladesh, Yunus conveyed that he has no plans to step down. Amid speculations of his resignation, the Nobel laureate held a series of meetings with members his advisory council as well as representatives of various political parties, seeking their support.

Following the unscheduled meeting of the advisory council, Adviser Mahmud briefed reporters, stating, “The Chief Adviser will remain with us. He has not indicated any intention to resign. The other advisers are also staying. We have been entrusted with responsibilities, and we are here to fulfil them."

What elections in Bangladesh mean for India?

Relations between New Delhi and Dhaka have taken a sharp downward turn since the fall of Sheikh Hasina's government - a leader India considered a trusted and pragmatic partner in South Asia. Hasina's administration had cooperated closely with India on issues ranging from counter-terrorism and cross-border insurgency to trade, transit, and water-sharing. Her exit has left a vacuum, with India increasingly uncertain about the direction Bangladesh’s interim leadership, and its eventual elected government, will take.

The spike in crime against minority Hindus in Bangladesh and Dhaka’s growing ties with Pakistan and China only added to Delhi’s concerns.

India fears that a prolonged power vacuum or the rise of unfriendly political forces could embolden radical groups, reverse key security collaborations, and give China and Pakistan greater strategic space in the region.

India is also worried about potential spillover effects: instability in Bangladesh could trigger fresh waves of migration across the porous border, impact trade in the Northeast, and stir communal tensions. For India, therefore, Bangladesh’s elections are not just a matter of regional politics: they are deeply tied to its own internal security and strategic calculus in South Asia.