Will the US strike Venezuela? The plans, the risks, the law

Will the US strike Venezuela? The plans, the risks, the law

US President Donald Trump is considering a range of military options aimed at Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, including strikes on military units protecting him or even operations to seize oil fields, according to US officials familiar with ongoing discussions, the New York Times reported.

While no decision has been made, advisers have drafted plans that would mark one of the administration’s most aggressive foreign-policy moves yet — and potentially its most legally fraught. Trump, wary of another protracted conflict, has hesitated to authorize any mission that risks American casualties or public backlash.

Pressure campaign and military buildup

Since late August, the US has increased its military presence in the Caribbean, with about 10,000 personnel deployed across warships and bases in Puerto Rico. The aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford, carrying more than 75 aircraft, is expected to arrive mid-November. B-52 and B-1 bombers have flown show-of-force missions off Venezuela’s coast, and Special Operations units have conducted helicopter exercises nearby.

Officials describe the buildup as part of a psychological pressure campaign on Maduro, but it also positions Washington to act swiftly if Trump authorizes a strike. When asked whether Maduro’s days were numbered, Trump replied, “I think so, yeah.”

Legal and political calculations

The Justice Department is preparing guidance that could classify Maduro and his top aides as members of the Cartel de los Soles, designated by Washington as a narcoterrorist group. That interpretation could offer a legal path to target Maduro without formal congressional approval or declaring war — a move likely to face intense scrutiny.

Some aides, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, reportedly support removing Maduro by force. Others have warned Trump against “forever wars,” reminding him of his campaign promise to avoid military entanglements.

Three potential plans

Officials said the proposals fall into three broad categories. The first envisions limited airstrikes on Venezuelan military sites tied to drug trafficking. A second involves special forces operations to capture or kill Maduro, using the narcoterrorism label as justification. The third — the riskiest — would send counterterrorism units to seize Venezuelan airfields and oil infrastructure.

Trump, according to aides, favours low-risk options such as naval or drone strikes but remains intrigued by the potential to control Venezuelan oil reserves, the largest in the world.

Oil and strategic interests

Maduro has attempted to win favour by offering oil concessions to American firms, promising preferential access if sanctions are lifted. Trump rejected those overtures in October, even as his administration renewed a license for Chevron to maintain limited operations in the country. The company, one of the last US producers active there, is seen as a key player should Venezuela’s government fall and a new regime reopen its economy to foreign investment.

Risks and uncertainty ahead

Any move against Maduro carries immense legal and political risk. The administration has yet to articulate what would follow regime change or how to manage the fallout of a failed strike. Trump’s aides acknowledge that the operation could either topple Maduro or rally nationalist support around him.

For now, the US buildup continues — a mix of deterrence, pressure, and preparation — while the president weighs whether to turn threats into action.