Why some people in Mexico’s cartel heartland are reconsidering US intervention

Sinaloa has been closely associated with the drug trade for decades. (Representative photo)

• Sinaloa hit by cartel violence, disappearances, economic woes
• Some residents consider US intervention for stability
• Cartel factions strengthen defenses amid US strike debate

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Across Mexico, US President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the US could strike drug cartels inside the country has been met with strong resistance. In a national poll conducted last month, nearly eight out of ten Mexicans said they opposed the idea.

Yet the mood sounds different in parts of Sinaloa, a northwestern state that has long been one of the centres of Mexico’s drug trade. In the state capital of Culiacán and surrounding towns, the past 20 months have been shaped by violence, disappearances and constant uncertainty. For some residents living through that reality, the question is no longer just about national sovereignty. It is about whether anyone can restore a sense of safety, the New York Times reported.

Several people interviewed in the region said they were exhausted by the ongoing violence and would even consider the possibility of US intervention if it brought stability. For them, the debate is less ideological than practical.

How a cartel split plunged the region into violence

Sinaloa has been closely associated with the drug trade for decades. The state is the birthplace of the Sinaloa Cartel, once led by Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán and other powerful figures in Mexico’s criminal underworld.

But the current wave of violence began in July 2024 when a rupture inside the cartel set off a bitter internal struggle. One of El Chapo’s sons broke with allies of Ismael Zambada García, widely known as El Mayo, who had long been one of the organisation’s key leaders.

That split fractured the cartel into rival factions. Gun battles soon began erupting across the state as both sides fought to control territory, trafficking routes and drug production sites.

Residents in and around Culiacán describe how the conflict quickly seeped into everyday life. At times people stayed indoors for days while gunfire echoed through neighbourhoods and highways were blocked by burning trucks.

Bodies have been found along roadsides. Shootouts have taken place even in well-off parts of the city. What once seemed like isolated incidents now feels like a constant background presence.

Families searching for the missing

Perhaps the most painful consequence of the violence has been the growing number of disappearances.

Across Sinaloa, groups of families regularly travel to rural areas searching for clandestine graves. Many carry tools and dig through scrubland in the hope of finding remains that could finally answer years of uncertainty.

According to local records, more than 18,000 people have gone missing in Sinaloa since 2006. More than 5,500 of those disappearances have occurred in the past 20 months alone, during the current conflict between cartel factions. For many families, the search has become a routine part of life.

Some of the people involved in those searches say they have little confidence that authorities will ever fully dismantle the criminal networks operating in the state. That frustration has contributed to a growing sense of desperation.

Economic damage spreading through the state

The violence has also taken a heavy toll on Sinaloa’s economy. Businesses that once relied on tourism or nightlife have struggled as residents stay home after dark. Streets that were once busy late into the evening now empty much earlier.

Agustín Coppel, the chief executive of the retail chain Coppel, said businesses across the state have been forced to shut down as the conflict drags on. According to estimates from business leaders, thousands of companies have closed in recent years.

Hotels and restaurants have seen steep declines in customers, and even large retailers have reported falling sales. For many residents, the economic slowdown has added another layer of strain to an

already difficult situation.

Mexico’s government response 

Mexico’s government has tried to restore order by sending a large number of security

forces into the state. More than 12,000 soldiers and National Guard troops have been deployed to Sinaloa, one of the biggest security operations in the region in years.

Authorities say they have arrested several cartel leaders and dismantled numerous drug laboratories. Officials also point to signs that the violence may be easing slightly, including a recent

decline in homicide rates.

Still, many residents say the sense of danger remains. Shootings and kidnappings continue, and families searching for missing relatives remain a visible presence across the region.

Why Trump’s proposal is stirring debate

Against this backdrop, Trump’s suggestion that the United States could strike cartel targets inside Mexico has sparked intense debate.

Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has firmly rejected the idea, saying that security operations inside the country must remain under Mexican control. But among some people in Sinaloa, the conversation has become more complicated.

After years of violence, a few residents say they are open to almost any idea that might bring peace.

Others strongly disagree. Some fear that US military action would only escalate the conflict and expose civilians to even greater danger.

How cartels are reacting to the possibility

Inside the cartels themselves, Trump’s remarks appear to have caused concern. Some cartel members say the idea of US military action once seemed unlikely. But recent events in the region have made the threat feel more plausible.

According to people familiar with the groups’ activities, some factions have begun strengthening their defences around key leaders and drug laboratories. They are also acquiring equipment such as drone jammers and heavier weapons.

Lookouts have reportedly been stationed in mountainous areas to watch for aircraft or drones, and unfamiliar vehicles are being questioned more carefully.

The growing uncertainty has made members of the criminal organisations more cautious about how they move and communicate.

A divided view of what comes next

Even in Sinaloa, where frustration with violence runs deep, opinions about foreign intervention remain sharply divided. Some residents say the United States should focus on addressing drug consumption within its own borders rather than sending troops abroad.

Others worry that an American attack would provoke cartels into escalating their violence.

For families who have lost relatives or continue searching for missing loved ones, the debate often feels far removed from their daily reality. What they want most is simple: an end to the violence that has defined life in the region for far too long.