Why Iran’s friends are looking the other way amid escalating conflict with Israel

Iran’s allies’ interests have divided over the years

As the conflict with Israel enters the seventh day, there has been a rather muted response from Iran's allies.

Iranian leaders for decades built a network of proxy forces across the Middle East, describing it as the “Axis of Resistance” to Israel and US influence in the region. Now that Iran faces one of its greatest threats, these allies seem to be missing in action.

The Axis includes Hamas, the Palestinian militant group in Gaza, Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, the Houthi movement in Yemen; various Shi'ite armed groups in Iraq and Syria.

Beyond Middle East, Iran, China, Russia as well as North Korea form a group, that foreign policy experts have termed as Axis of Upheaval or the Quartet of Chaos or the CRINK axis.

However, none of Iran's allies have rushed to its aid as Tehran faces the full force of Israeli military prowess and aggressive American posturing.

A look at Iran’s allies’ stance:

Once Iran’s most formidable proxy, Lebanese Shia paramilitary group Hezbollah hasn’t fired a single missile since Israel attacked Iran, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. The group has faced massive setbacks in the past year by continued Israeli strikes. It’s leader Hassan Nasrallah’s death last year also marked a turning point for the group.

Many Hezbollah members believe “they were sacrificed for Iran’s greater regional interests” since Hamas’ attack on Israel triggered the latest Israel-Hamas war, and want to focus on “Lebanon-centric” interests rather than defending Iran, Andreas Krieg, a military analyst and associate professor at King’s College London, told The Washington Post.

The Palestinian militant group Hamas, meanwhile, is a shadow of itself after nearly two years of war with Israel resulting in death of several of its leaders and leaving much of Gaza in ruins.

Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq, until a few months ago, harassed US troops and shielded Iranian interests. However, they now remain cautious in their approach following Israel’s attacks on Iranian soil. Yemen's Houthi militia fired several missiles at Israel on Sunday, but have remained silent since, the WSJ report stated.

While Houthis were Iran’s most visibly active ally, they have been cautious since March after many of their missile batteries were destroyed in US airstrikes.

Russia has condemned Israel’s attack as an “unprovoked aggression” but hasn’t shown any inclination to get involved militarily. China positions itself as a mediator while North Korea has condemned the recent strikes by Israel.

According to the WSJ report, Iran’s allies’ interests have divided over the years. Some like Iraq’s militia members are now making fortunes in the oil sector while others like Hezbollah are trying to rebuild and nursing grievances over the lack of support from Tehran during the group’s war with Israel, WSJ report cited Arab diplomats.

“For all of these networks right now, it’s about survival,” Renad Mansour, a senior fellow and Iraq Initiative project director at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, was quoted by WSJ. “They all understand the wrath of these types of military campaigns.”

US to initiate military action against Iran?

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has kept the world guessing about whether the United States will join Israel's bombardment of Iranian nuclear sites as the Israel-Iran conflict entered its seventh day on Thursday.

Speaking to reporters outside the White House, Trump declined to say if he had made any decision on whether to join Israel's campaign. “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do,” he said.

The Wall Street Journal said Trump had told senior aides he approved attack plans on Iran but was holding off on giving the final order to see if Tehran would abandon its nuclear program.