When will Iran’s regime fall? Mossad chief David Barnea signals long road

Iran regime collapse unlikely in near term

When will Iran’s regime fall, if at all? As the conflict stretches on, intelligence assessments suggest the answer is far from imminent, pointing instead to a slow, uncertain path rather than a sudden collapse.

According to a report by The Jerusalem Post, Mossad chief David Barnea told Israel’s cabinet before the conflict that regime change was possible, but unlikely to happen quickly. Instead of days or weeks, he assessed that a timeframe of around a year was more realistic, presenting multiple scenarios to Israeli leaders.

The report suggests this more measured view has since been overshadowed by claims that Barnea had overstated the chances of a rapid collapse. In reality, his assessment was described as cautious and conditional, not a guaranteed prediction.

Earlier reporting, however, painted a more optimistic picture. According to The New York Times, Barnea had told Benjamin Netanyahu and officials in the administration of Donald Trump that an uprising could be triggered within days of the war’s start, potentially leading to the regime’s fall.

That has not materialised. Three weeks into the conflict, intelligence assessments from the US and Israel indicate that while Iran’s leadership has been weakened, it remains firmly in control.

The Times of Israel, citing Channel 12, reported that Barnea had outlined conditions necessary for regime change — including decapitating leadership, damaging institutions and weakening the state’s ability to suppress dissent — but stressed these would take time and came with “disclaimers and qualifications”.

Public messaging has since become more cautious. US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said the regime “appears to be intact, but largely degraded”. Netanyahu has echoed that uncertainty, saying Israel is working to “create the conditions” for change, but adding: “it may survive, it may not. If it survives, it’ll be a lot weaker.”

For now, intelligence suggests that any collapse, if it comes is likely to be gradual rather than imminent.