How US and UK intelligence saw Russia’s Ukraine invasion coming and were ignored

Ignored warnings before Ukraine invasion

Months before Russian tanks rolled across Ukraine’s borders, a quiet alarm was already sounding in Washington and London. Intelligence chiefs in both capitals had pieced together what they believed was unmistakable evidence: Vladimir Putin was preparing for war. Yet while the warnings grew more urgent behind closed doors, much of Europe — and even leaders in Kyiv — struggled to believe that a full-scale invasion was truly imminent.

A report by The Guardian says the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Britain’s MI6 had detailed and accurate intelligence about Moscow’s plans long before the first missiles were launched. Despite this, many European governments found it difficult to accept that a major war could once again erupt on European soil in the 21st century.

Intelligence signals and a warning to Moscow

The alarm bells began ringing in 2021. William Burns, head of the CIA, travelled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin amid mounting US intelligence suggesting that Moscow could be preparing to invade Ukraine.

US President Joe Biden dispatched Burns with a blunt message: any invasion would trigger severe economic sanctions and political consequences from the United States and its allies.

Because of Covid restrictions, much of the communication unfolded over the phone. Burns warned of serious repercussions. Putin, however, shifted the focus to his own security concerns, claiming Russian intelligence had identified an American warship in the Black Sea and suggesting that Russia itself felt threatened.

By then, US agencies had already gathered troubling evidence that Russia was preparing for military action.

Growing alarm in NATO circles

By mid-November 2021, President Biden sent Avril Haines to Brussels, where she briefed NATO intelligence chiefs. She outlined Washington’s assessment: there was now a serious and real possibility of a large-scale invasion. She was backed by Richard Moore, chief of MI6.

Despite the stark presentation, scepticism remained in the room. Some officials simply could not envisage Russia launching a full invasion.

According to US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, the evidence was compelling. “It's not like we held back something that, if only they had seen it, would have made all the difference,” he said.

Direct appeals to Kyiv

In late October 2021, the CIA and MI6 sent formal memos to Kyiv outlining their alarming assessments. One US official, Eric Green, told Ukrainian counterparts: “We will follow up. You'll see the intel. This is not a normal warning; this is really serious. Trust us.”

Yet officials in Kyiv, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, appeared unconvinced about the immediacy of the threat.

In November, British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace travelled to Kyiv and told Zelenskyy an invasion was a matter of “when,” not “if”. “You can't fatten up a pig on market day,” he told Zelenskyy.

One US intelligence official later reflected: “In the final weeks, the intelligence leaders were starting to get it, the mood was different. But the political leadership just refused to accept it until right at the end.”

Reading the signs

According to Haines, the warning did not stem from a single intercepted master plan. “Often, it's presented as we found the plans but it definitely was not that simple. None of the intercepted communication openly mentioned that they are invading but some of the actions being discussed only made sense if an invasion was being prepared,” she said.

Commercial satellite images showed tens of thousands of Russian troops massing near Ukraine’s borders in formations that went far beyond routine exercises. Logistics, coordination and troop positioning suggested preparation for a major assault. There were also signs of activity west of the Dnipro River, raising fears that Kyiv itself could be targeted.

Four weeks after a summit in Geneva between Biden and Putin, the Russian president published a lengthy essay arguing that Ukraine’s “true sovereignty” depended on close ties with Russia. In London and Washington, it deepened concerns that Putin did not fully recognise Ukraine as an independent state.

By February 2022 — roughly three months after the US first warned NATO allies of an imminent attack — Russian forces crossed into Ukraine, triggering the most serious rupture in Europe’s security order since the Second World War.