US debt set to break World War II record sooner than expected under GOP spending plan

A screen displaying the US national debt is seen in the Manhattan borough of New York City on April 11, 2025.

The United States is fast approaching a level of national debt unseen since the end of World War II — and it could happen much sooner than previously projected. New estimates warn that a Republican legislative package advancing in the House could cause the country’s debt to surge well past the current record, raising red flags among budget analysts and credit agencies, the New York Times reported.

In 1945, US debt briefly surpassed the size of the economy due to war spending and the Great Depression. Now, that benchmark — once considered extraordinary — is set to be eclipsed by 2032 under current law. But analysts say the GOP’s new “megabill” of tax cuts and defence spending could push the timeline forward and dramatically expand the long-term debt burden.

Debt surge amid economic calm alarms economists

Unlike previous debt peaks, which coincided with economic shocks, today’s rising deficit is happening during a period of low unemployment and no active war. “We are entering uncharted territory,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. “The last record was just after a world war, and this time we are scheduled to hit it in the midst of a strong economy — so that contrast is stunning.”

The bill, if passed, would extend and expand the Trump-era tax cuts and ramp up military expenditures, with offsetting cuts in areas like Medicaid and energy credits. Still, budget experts say these savings would be dwarfed by the cost of the tax breaks.

Debt to surpass size of economy—and keep climbing

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that without any new policy changes, debt will reach 117% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2034. The Republican bill could push that to as high as 129%, according to projections by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Even under more conservative assumptions, where temporary tax cuts expire, the debt would still reach 125% of GDP.

A more long-term projection by the liberal Center for American Progress shows an even bleaker picture: if all temporary provisions are made permanent, the debt could hit 200% of GDP by 2055.

Cost of borrowing adds pressure

Rising interest rates are compounding the debt problem. The government is now spending more on interest payments than on defence or Medicare. Moody’s recently downgraded its outlook on US government debt, citing concerns about the rising fiscal burden and political instability. The downgrade signals a growing risk that the US might, at some point, struggle to meet its debt obligations.

Economists like Natasha Sarin of the Yale Budget Lab warn that the US is inching closer to a tipping point. “A crisis always feels far off until you’re in one,” she said. “We don’t know exactly where that cliff is—but we know that we’re getting closer.”

GOP defends tax cuts, but analysts disagree

Some Republicans have dismissed the warnings, arguing that tax cuts will spur enough economic growth to offset their cost. But independent analysts across the spectrum have found little evidence to support that view. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the Congressional Budget Office, and other nonpartisan institutions say the tax breaks will add significantly to the deficit.

Even past promises of fiscal responsibility have often gone unmet. Debt increased under both Democratic and Republican administrations—from President George W. Bush’s wars and tax cuts, to President Obama’s stimulus packages, to Trump’s tax cuts and pandemic aid, and Biden’s infrastructure and health care spending.

A record no one wants to break

While the precise trajectory remains uncertain, the direction is clear: federal debt is on course to shatter records and keep climbing. And unlike 1945, there is no postwar boom waiting on the other side. With growing doubts about whether Congress will curb the trend, America could soon face a debt burden far larger — and riskier — than at any point in its modern history.