Trump said Iran’s retaliation was a ‘surprise’; US intelligence had already flagged it as a risk

Pre-war intelligence warned of Iranian strikes on Gulf states and possible Hormuz disruption

• US intelligence warned of Iranian retaliation before Gulf strikes
• Trump's claim of surprise contradicted by intelligence briefings
• Precautions lagged behind warnings, raising planning questions

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US President Donald Trump’s claim that Iran’s retaliation against Gulf countries came as a 'surprise' is now facing direct contradiction from within his own system.

According to a Reuters report citing a US official and two sources familiar with intelligence assessments, pre-war briefings had explicitly outlined the risk of Iranian retaliation, including strikes on US allies in the Gulf and disruption of global oil routes.

While the assessments did not guarantee retaliation, one source said it was “certainly on the list of potential outcomes.”

That matters because Trump twice said on Monday that no one expected Iran to strike Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait.

“Nobody expected that. We were shocked,” Trump said. The intelligence picture suggests otherwise.

What US intelligence warned before the strikes

The report lays out a clearer chain of warnings that preceded the US decision to join Israel’s military campaign against Iran on February 28.

According to sources cited by Reuters:

• US intelligence assessed that attacking Iran could trigger a wider regional conflict
• Iran could retaliate against Gulf capitals, especially if they were seen as backing US action
• Tehran could attempt to disrupt or shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil artery
• Israeli plans to target top Iranian leaders could provoke direct retaliation against US assets

These were not fringe scenarios. They were part of formal intelligence briefings to policymakers, including the president.

What actually happened on the ground

In the two weeks since the strikes, events have broadly followed that playbook.

Iran has:

• Launched drones and missiles at Gulf states, including US military bases
• Targeted civilian infrastructure such as airports, hotels and energy facilities
• Disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supply flows

The fallout has been immediate. Energy markets have swung sharply, with oil prices spiking amid fears of prolonged supply disruption.

A widening gap between claims and assessments

Trump’s comments also come against a broader backdrop of disputed claims used to justify the war.

The administration had earlier suggested:

• Iran was close to developing a missile capable of hitting the US mainland
• Tehran could build a nuclear bomb within weeks

According to the Reuters report, these assertions were not backed by US intelligence assessments.

Separately, Democratic lawmakers who attended classified briefings last week said they were not presented with evidence of an imminent threat that necessitated immediate military action.

Delayed precautions raise further questions

Another key detail: precautionary steps appear to have lagged behind intelligence warnings.

The administration did not order diplomatic staff departures from several regional embassies until after the air strikes had begun, according to the report.

That timing raises questions about how seriously the retaliation risks were factored into operational planning.