Trump’s South Asia point man is a staunch Pakistan critic: What Paul Kapur’s appointment signals for Islamabad

S Paul Kapur, an Indian-American scholar and security expert, has been confirmed as the United States’ Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs. Born in New Delhi to an Indian father and American mother, Kapur will now serve as Washington’s point man for South Asia under President Donald Trump. He succeeds Donald Lu, who held the post during the previous Biden administration. Kapur is widely known for his critical analysis of Pakistan’s use of militants as a tool of state policy against India and its risky reliance on nuclear weapons as a strategic trump card.

The appointment comes at a time when US-Pakistan ties are strained, India-US relations are expanding, and China is increasing its influence across the Indo-Pacific. Kapur has long advocated for a stronger US-India partnership while warning of Pakistan’s persistent destabilising role in the region. His confirmation in a 51-47 Senate vote reinforces Washington’s intent to adopt a more discerning approach toward Islamabad while deepening engagement with New Delhi.

Who is Paul Kapur?

Kapur, 56, is a professor of national security affairs at the US Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California. He also leads the US–India strategic dialogues for the Department of Defence and is a Visiting Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. His academic work spans nuclear deterrence, Islamist militancy, and South Asian geopolitics.

He studied South Asia as an undergraduate, earned a Bachelor’s degree from Amherst College, and completed a PhD in political science and international relations at the University of Chicago. Kapur has also taught at Claremont McKenna College and Stanford University and previously served in the State Department’s policy planning division during the Trump administration.

As head of the State Department’s South Asia bureau, Kapur will oversee US relations with Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan, and the five Central Asian republics.

Critic of Pakistan’s militant strategy

Kapur is a noted Pakistan hawk. In his book Jihad as Grand Strategy: Islamist Militancy, National Security, and the Pakistani State, he wrote:

“Since the end of the British Raj and the founding of the Pakistani state in 1947, Pakistan has sought to promote its security interests through the use of Islamist militants. Today, militant proxies are one of the primary tools, along with conventional and nuclear forces, that Pakistan uses to produce security for itself. Jihad has become a central component of Pakistani grand strategy.”

He argued that Pakistan’s use of militants is not accidental but a deliberate state policy.

“Militant forces, by contrast, have served as Pakistan’s primary offensive tool. They have started conflicts in which conventional forces have subsequently participated, such as the 1947 and 1965 wars. In addition, Pakistan has used them to wage the Kashmir insurgency and shape the Afghan security environment largely unassisted.”

Kapur has repeatedly warned that this strategy now poses a “serious risk of catastrophe” for Pakistan as militant groups gain autonomy and could turn against the state.

“LeT could undertake unauthorised provocations against India, perhaps on a scale similar to the 2008 assault on Mumbai. India might well blame these actions on the Pakistani government, even though Pakistani leaders did not countenance them. The Indians could consequently decide to respond by using military force against Pakistan, plunging the two countries into conflict.”

He has also criticised Pakistan’s overconfidence in its nuclear arsenal: “Pakistani leaders believe that, with nuclear weapons, they hold a national-security trump card. Whatever else happens in Pakistan’s security competition with India or other states, nuclear weapons ensure that the Pakistanis will not suffer catastrophic defeat. This significantly reduces the Pakistanis’ incentives to abandon their militant strategy.”

Kapur has traced Pakistan’s militant strategy to the country’s very founding, writing that the use of jihadist proxies is a “deliberate, long-running policy as old as the Pakistani state.”

Criticism of US-Pakistan ties

Kapur has also openly criticized US policies toward Pakistan. In a 2023 piece for the Observer Research Foundation, he called Pakistan a “partial ally” in the war on terror, noting that despite arrests of some Lashkar-e-Taiba leaders, “other important terrorists, including senior LeT leaders, remained at large in Pakistan.”

He slammed Washington’s financial support for Pakistan’s F-16 program in 2022: “But American leaders must abandon their decades-long dream of achieving strategic convergence between the US and Pakistan. Efforts to pursue it through measures such as expanded security assistance will not come to fruition. And they will damage the US’ real strategic interests in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific.”

Kapur faces the challenge of balancing his strong stance on Pakistan with Trump’s transactional approach to Islamabad, including the president’s commercial and political ties. Last month, Trump hosted Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir at the White House, highlighting the complexity of the bilateral relationship.

Positive outlook on India

Kapur has consistently advocated for a stronger US-India partnership. He wrote for the Hoover Institution: “The United States–India strategic partnership has a natural, seemingly inevitable quality about it. The need to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific region, balance rising Chinese power, and enhance prosperity through trade and other economic cooperation creates incentives that are very strong.”

During his Senate hearing, he emphasised that the US and India “share a host of common interests” including a “free and open Indo-Pacific region,” improving trade and economic relations, strengthening cooperation in technology and innovation, and guaranteeing reliable energy access to foster economic growth. He added:

“If confirmed, I will work to further advance US–India relations and put our partnership on course to realise its tremendous promise.”

Kapur’s appointment comes as the US and India navigate trade talks and manage tensions over tariffs. He has also highlighted the strategic importance of maintaining regional sovereignty, countering Chinese influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, and diversifying US energy sources.

With Kapur at the helm, Washington’s South Asia policy is likely to become more India-focused while taking a tougher line on Pakistan’s proxy wars and unstable nuclear posture. His expertise and long-standing criticism of Islamabad signal a potential recalibration of US engagement in the region, with New Delhi emerging as a key strategic partner.