Trump's global gamble: Trade wars, cold peace, and a faltering peacemaker image

Trump's global gamble

US President Donald Trump started his second term as a peacemaker and a dealmaker. Yet, as his presidency approaches its 100th day, international conflicts are only getting fiercer, with little diplomacy to point to. Trump's attempt to confront China with a comprehensive tariff regime and to push Russia hard over Ukraine has gone awry, further damaging the administration's standing on the global stage, the Washington Post reported.

Economic warning bells at IMF gatherings

At the International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington this week, Trump's combative trade policies were the main attraction. IMF officials cautioned that the impending tariffs on world exports to the US could bring down global growth. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde indicated that warnings of slowing GDP were already out, and the IMF forecast a global "significant slowdown." As much as the White House insists that the trade war will yield positive outcomes, economic indicators and global sentiment disagree.

China digs in while the US scrambles

China's retaliation has been swift and strategic. Beijing has put increasing restraints on exports of rare earths, crucial to US industries, which has raised alarm among American producers and regulators. Trump's administration, while grasping at damage control, has been unable to articulate a clear or cohesive direction ahead. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested potential de-escalation, Beijing seems certain that time is in its favour. The White House's efforts to negotiate bilateral agreements have not given foreign nations confidence, particularly with the history of Trump pulling out of agreements.

Diplomacy lost in translation

Diplomats and analysts worldwide are observing the uncertainty of Washington's foreign policy. "The only certainty is uncertainty," declared one senior Southeast Asian official. Others doubt the effectiveness of Trump's blunt, transactional style of diplomacy, worrying about long-term instability and reduced trust in American leadership.

Ukraine pushed aside as Russia makes advances

At the same time, Trump's peace negotiations with Russia in Ukraine have stalled. The administration has put more pressure on Ukraine than on the Kremlin, compelling President Zelensky to weigh a bargain that would legitimize Russia's annexation of Crimea and leave extensive tracts of Ukrainian land under Russian military occupation. The framework agreement contains no promises for Ukrainian sovereignty or membership in NATO, fuelling Kyiv's suspicion.

Zelensky returns home as a besieged capital

Ukraine's president left a visit to South Africa in the middle as Russia launched killing airstrikes in the Kyiv area that killed 12. The air raids outraged him and have only added to frustrations with Washington over what is perceived as pro-Russian favouritism. Zelensky was openly dissed by Trump, who dismissed him as weak and lacking influence, while going on about Putin using language indicating an equivalence of powers.

Critics ask if America's strategic stance is wise Former British national security adviser Lord Mark Sedwill, speaking about Trump's foreign policy, said the US president is undermining the very image of American strength he professes to champion. "Why does he treat Putin as an equal?" he asked. "Putin is nowhere near an equal."

A gamble at risk with low returns

As China emerges as an increasingly stable world partner and Russia consolidates its territorial conquests, Trump's "America First" policy is under pressure. Critics say that it overestimates US unilateral muscle and underestimates the ability of competitor states to resist. As the world drifts towards multipolar chaos, Trump's high-risk gamble on tariffs and unilateral diplomacy is a long way from paying out.