Trump administration review puts Aukus submarine deal in doubt

Trump administration review puts Aukus submarine deal in doubt

The Trump administration in the US has launched a review of the landmark 2021 Aukus submarine agreement between the US, UK and Australia, raising fears that the pact could be scrapped just as tensions with China reach new heights, the Financial Times reported.

The review, led by senior Pentagon official Elbridge Colby, is examining whether the US should remain in the deal, which calls for the sale of up to five American Virginia-class submarines to Australia and joint production of a new class of nuclear-powered submarines. Colby, a known sceptic of Aukus, has previously warned that the agreement could weaken US naval strength as the threat from Beijing grows.

Pulling out of Aukus would dismantle a major pillar of security cooperation among the three allies. The review has already triggered deep anxiety in Canberra and London, according to several officials familiar with the matter.

Strained alliances amid an ‘America First’ shift

While Aukus has enjoyed strong bipartisan support in the US and among experts, critics argue the pact risks undermining US military readiness. The US Navy faces challenges in building enough submarines to meet growing demands, particularly if a conflict with China over Taiwan were to erupt.

Colby has stressed that American submarines would be critical to defending Taiwan and questioned whether the US should assist Australia without a firm commitment from Canberra to support Washington in any such conflict.

Trump administration officials also appear to be pressing allies to shoulder a greater share of defence spending. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently urged Australia to boost its defence budget from 2% to 3.5% of GDP—demands that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has so far resisted.

Allies express alarm

British and Australian officials are increasingly concerned about the fate of the agreement. "Aukus is the most substantial military and strategic undertaking between the US, Australia and Great Britain in generations," Kurt Campbell, a former US architect of Aukus, told The Financial Times. Undermining it, he warned, could trigger a crisis of confidence among key US allies.

Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, echoed that view. "Scrapping this partnership would further tarnish America’s reputation and raise more questions among our closest defence partners about our reliability," she said.

One person familiar with internal discussions said it remains unclear whether Colby is acting alone or representing a broader administration effort. "Sentiment seems to be that it’s the former, but the lack of clarity has confused Congress, other government departments and Australia," the person said.

Strategic stakes rise as China builds capacity

The review comes as the US and its allies face a narrowing window to counter China's military expansion. China currently has 31 nuclear reactors under construction and plans to add 40 more in the coming decade. The country's shipbuilding capacity far exceeds that of the US

Defence analysts say Australia’s strategic position makes its submarine fleet critical for joint operations in the Indo-Pacific. Without increased investment from Canberra, some Trump administration officials reportedly favor freezing or cancelling Pillar 1 of Aukus, the part dealing with submarine transfers.

Australian defense expert John Lee warned that Australia’s navy could be rapidly weakened without a budget increase. "This is unacceptable to the Trump administration," Lee said.

Next steps uncertain

A Pentagon spokesperson confirmed the review, saying it aimed to ensure that "this initiative of the previous administration is aligned with the president’s 'America First' agenda." The review is expected to take about 30 days.

UK officials acknowledged the review but remained cautious. "That makes sense for a new administration," one British official said, while reiterating the UK’s continued commitment to Aukus.

The Australian embassy in Washington declined to comment.

As tensions mount in the Indo-Pacific, US allies are watching the outcome of the review closely. A decision to pull back from Aukus could reshape regional security—and further complicate Washington’s relations with some of its closest partners.