Tanzania’s election shadowed by disappearances and fear of repression

Tanzania election marred by repression (source: X)

As Tanzanians prepare to vote on October 29, a wave of disappearances has gripped the nation. Opposition leaders, activists and even former insiders from the ruling party have vanished in what human-rights groups describe as a state-led campaign to silence dissent. One of the most shocking cases is that of Humphrey Polepole, a former ambassador and longtime member of the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), who disappeared from his home in Dar es Salaam earlier this month—leaving behind only a pool of blood, the Financial Times reported.

Polepole’s vanishing is emblematic of what critics call a chilling new phase in Tanzania’s politics under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who is seeking a second term. “They are using elections to legitimise authoritarian rule,” said a former senior CCM official who requested anonymity.

Opposition crushed and critics silenced

The main opposition leader, Tundu Lissu, has been jailed on treason charges that carry the death penalty, effectively crippling his Chadema party. Other activists have fled the country, while dozens more have been abducted or gone missing in recent months. According to campaigner Maria Sarungi Tsehai, her group has documented nearly 200 enforced disappearances since Suluhu Hassan took power, with 50 reported since June alone.
Tsehai, who was herself briefly kidnapped in Kenya earlier this year, said repression has intensified ahead of the polls. “Every time they cross a red line it gets worse and worse. But right now, there is no red line,” she said.

From reformist promise to renewed repression

Suluhu Hassan, who took office in 2021 after the death of former president John Magufuli, was initially hailed as a moderate and reformer. But rights groups now say she has reversed early openings. Her government has barred key opposition activities, deported foreign observers, and silenced local critics through intimidation and surveillance.
Polepole, once a Magufuli loyalist and CCM party ideologue, broke ranks last month when he resigned as ambassador to Cuba, saying he could no longer “serve a government that has turned against its people.” His disappearance weeks later has sent shockwaves through even the ruling establishment.

A one-party state in all but name

The CCM has ruled Tanzania uninterrupted since independence in 1961, weathering transitions from socialism to market reform while keeping firm control. Elections, observers say, have long been managed to ensure its dominance. Despite Tanzania’s economic progress and relative peace, frustration is growing among its 68 million citizens, especially younger voters angry at corruption and unemployment.

As Suluhu Hassan campaigns, she insists that enthusiasm at her rallies proves that only CCM can “sustain the pace of development.” Yet her government appears determined not to risk any genuine challenge.

International silence and muted pressure

Western governments have been cautious, wary of losing influence in a strategically important East African nation. One diplomat admitted that donors now limit engagement to “safe topics” like climate or women’s health, avoiding political interference.

The Tanzanian police say they are investigating Polepole’s disappearance but have dismissed reports of torture and sexual violence against foreign activists as “hearsay.” Government spokesperson Gerson Msigwa said in a statement that the abductions were a “major concern” and reiterated that the administration remains “committed to upholding human rights.”

The future of Tanzanian democracy

As election day nears, few expect a genuine contest. The opposition is weakened, civil society has been intimidated, and the ruling party faces no serious check on its power. The fear, activists warn, is that Tanzania’s democracy—once seen as a regional model—may be sliding into a familiar pattern of managed authoritarianism cloaked in the rituals of the ballot box.

As Tsehai put it bluntly: “They don’t feel like they have anyone stopping them—and that’s what makes it dangerous.”