Saudi succession questions loom as MBS consolidates power with no clear heir

Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman

Saudi Arabia’s future leadership is facing an unusual period of uncertainty as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) cements his unrivalled control of the kingdom but has yet to designate a clear successor. The question of who might follow the 39-year-old leader—should anything happen to him—has become one of the most sensitive topics in the kingdom, the Financial Times reported.

The issue came into sharp focus during President Donald Trump’s recent visit to Riyadh, where MBS, not the frail King Salman, hosted the US leader with all the grandeur of a state occasion. It was an unmistakable signal that MBS will assume the throne when his 89-year-old father dies. But beneath this certainty lies growing concern about what comes after him.

“There’s one guy who’s in charge, and it’s not clear what would happen if he departs,” said David Rundell, a former US chief of mission in Saudi Arabia. “Not only have you got to find a new guy to sit on the throne, you’ve got to find a guy to continue what’s going on, and that’s a potential problem.”

A rare break in the Saudi succession chain

For the first time in decades, Saudi Arabia’s traditional succession path has no clear next step. No deputy crown prince or deputy prime minister has been appointed. While MBS is expected to rule for decades, his failure to name a successor creates what Rundell calls “key-man risk” — a risk magnified by the sweeping economic and social reforms MBS has driven under his Vision 2030 plan.

In the past, Saudi kings and crown princes were chosen from among the many sons of the kingdom’s founder, King Abdulaziz. But MBS’s rise marked a generational shift that disrupted that established pattern. He consolidated power ruthlessly, sidelining potential rivals including former crown prince Mohammed bin Nayef, who remains under palace arrest.

Now, the question of succession is clouded. Some insiders speculate that MBS could name a successor upon becoming king, with his younger brother, Prince Khalid bin Salman, seen as a possible choice. But under Saudi law, the king and crown prince cannot hail from the same family branch — a rule MBS could seek to change.

Other contenders include Prince Turki bin Mohammed bin Fahd, a grandson of King Fahd and a minister of state, and Prince Abdullah bin Bandar, the minister of the National Guard. However, neither figure has yet emerged as a definitive heir apparent.

Intrigue and royal tradition at odds

Observers note that MBS’s reluctance to name a successor reflects both his style of governance and the centralisation of power under his personal authority. “It’s in [MBS’s] immediate political interest not to pick somebody,” said Rundell. “I don’t think he’s somebody who wants a partner. He calls all the shots.”

Bernard Haykel, professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton, said MBS could name a crown prince when he becomes king. “It’s something he would have discussed with key members of the royal family,” Haykel said. “But why he hasn’t announced it isn’t clear.”

Veteran Saudi watchers say the uncertainty carries real risk. One expert described the lack of a successor as “a curious blindness in his [MBS’s] political structure,” arguing that Saudi monarchs traditionally strengthened their rule by clearly establishing lines of succession. “No matter how talented or powerful you may be, the firmest of rulers put in place a deputy to take over. It’s the essence of the family system,” the expert said.

A leader in command but no partner in sight

MBS enjoys broad support within Saudi Arabia, where his reforms have transformed the economy and social landscape. He has also rehabilitated his international image after the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which drew global condemnation.

But the absence of a visible successor leaves a fragile element in the kingdom’s political architecture. As one Saudi citizen put it: “Many people are worried about this issue. After him, what?”

In a system that has long prized dynastic continuity and consensus, MBS’s concentration of power—and his unwillingness to appoint a deputy—marks a striking departure. “This is a royal court in the Shakespearean sense,” said Haykel. “A royal court full of rumours and intrigue.”

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