Russia vs Venezuela: Which oil source makes more sense for India? Comparing costs, risks and benefits | Explained

An oil refining plant of state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) is pictured in Maracaibo, Zulia State, Venezuela, on July 11, 2024. (Photo by Federico PARRA / AFP)

India is monitoring Venezuela’s political changes under Trump, which could reopen Venezuelan oil to global markets. While Russian crude dominates India’s imports, a stable Venezuela may offer India more supply options and boost energy security in the future.

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India is closely tracking developments in Venezuela as sweeping political changes under the Donald Trump administration could reshape global oil flows in ways that may benefit New Delhi.

Following the removal of Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro, President Trump has announced plans to take control of Venezuelan oil assets and has claimed that Caracas will hand over between 30 and 50 million barrels of sanctioned crude.

“This oil will be sold at its market price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!” Trump wrote on social media.

If sanctions ease and Venezuelan crude returns to global markets, India could once again have the option of tapping a source it once relied on heavily.

India’s growing appetite for oil

India is among the world’s largest oil consumers, requiring roughly five million barrels per day to meet domestic demand. Nearly 90 per cent of this oil is imported, placing India among the top global crude buyers.

Before the Ukraine war in 2022, India sourced most of its oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia. That equation changed sharply after Western sanctions on Moscow, as Russia began offering steep discounts.

Since 2022, India has imported crude worth nearly $144 billion from Russia, becoming Moscow’s second-largest buyer after China. Even as discounts narrowed in 2024, Russian oil continued to dominate India’s import basket.

Russian crude still dominates, but diversification is underway

Today, around 35 per cent of India’s oil comes from Russia, roughly two million barrels per day. India also imports large volumes from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the United States, with smaller quantities from Kuwait, West Africa and Mexico.

Discounted Russian crude remains cheaper for India, often priced $10 to $15 per barrel below Brent, even after shipping costs. However, geopolitical pressure is mounting.

Trump has previously imposed a 25 per cent levy on India for purchasing Russian crude and endorsed legislation that could allow the United States to impose tariffs of up to 500 per cent on buyers of Russian oil.

Against this backdrop, India has quietly stepped up diversification. According to Kpler, Russian crude shipments to India fell to a three-year low of about 1.2 million barrels per day in December 2025. At the same time, imports from the United States have surged.

US crude shipments to India touched 2.7 million tonnes in November 2025, accounting for over 13 per cent of total imports. Between April and November 2025, US crude exports to India jumped nearly 92 per cent compared to the same period in 2024.

Venezuela’s diminished role and possible return

Despite the renewed focus on Venezuela, the country currently plays a negligible role in India’s energy mix. Between April and December 2024, Venezuelan crude accounted for just one per cent of India’s oil import bill. In all of 2024, India imported only 22 million barrels of Venezuelan oil.

This was not always the case. In the mid-2010s, Venezuela supplied about 12 per cent of India’s crude needs. Bilateral trade peaked at $13 billion in 2013 before collapsing under US sanctions, payment constraints and shifting market conditions.

Now, with Venezuela potentially reopening its oil sector, India faces a strategic choice. Venezuelan crude is expected to cost around $60 per barrel after shipping and pricing mechanisms are finalised. That would make it more expensive than Russian oil but still competitive with other global benchmarks.

What works best for India

Experts caution that it is still early to draw firm conclusions.

“It’s too early to say anything yet because the US policy on Venezuela’s governance is still indeterminate,” Deepak Bhojwani told The Quint.

“Though President Trump has said they will exploit Venezuelan oil, we cannot be certain what role non-US companies may be called upon to play in exploration and related activities,” he said. “Possible benefits to India will depend upon the price at which the oil is offered, which again will depend upon who will be allowed to sell because the US may not give Venezuelan oil companies a free hand. Trump may decide to first allow US-based companies that operated earlier in Venezuela to recover what they lost and only then compensate others.”

Economist Soumya Bhowmick noted that political stability would be key for India’s long-term interests.

“More stability in Venezuela’s energy market would make things more predictable for India,” Bhowmick told the outlet. “That could help unlock long-pending receivables and dividends for Indian companies and give India incremental diversification in trade with Venezuela.”

For now, Russian crude remains India’s most economical and reliable option. But a stabilised Venezuela could offer India another lever to diversify supplies, strengthen energy security and enhance bargaining power in global oil markets over the medium to long term.