Russia battles into key Ukraine region: Why it matters and what it means for Kyiv

This handout photograph taken and released by Ukrainian State Emergency Service Press Service on May 25, 2025 shows a fire in damaged houses following Russian strike in Kyiv region, amid Russian invasion in Ukraine.

After months of fighting metre-by-metre towards the central Ukrainian region of Dnipropetrovsk, Russia announced this week that it had finally gained a foothold in the industrial territory.

Here's why the advance matters now, after more than three years of intensive fighting:

What happened?

Russia's defence ministry said on Monday that its forces had captured the village of Dachne just inside Dnipropetrovsk. The estimated population of the village was just several dozen people before the war.

But this is first time that Russia claims to have entered and held any significant amount of territory in the region, building pressure on Kyiv's forces across a sprawling and precarious front line.

Senior political and military officials in Kyiv have not responded to Russia's claim. But Ukrainian units fighting near Dachne have said the village remains under their control.

What Moscow and Kyiv are saying

Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's hawkish ex-president, said last month when Russian troops first crossed the border that this was the result of Kyiv and its allies not accepting occupied territory as Russian earlier.

"Those who do not want to accept the realities of the war in negotiations, will get new realities on the ground," he said.

Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky conceded this week that this section of the front was one where Russia has "significant superiority in forces and resources."

"The advance here was only a matter of time," a popular military Ukrainian blogger, Sergiy Sternenko wrote on Telegram.

What does this mean for Ukraine?

Dnipropetrovsk is part of Ukraine's mining heartland, particularly for coal that powers the country's electricity grid. Further Russian advances could harm the economy and energy supplies.

Authorities have already been ordering civilians with children to flee the front line that is creeping closer.

Deeper Russian advances could mean more attacks on one of Ukraine's largest cities, Dnipro -- though Russian troops are around 200 kilometres (120 miles) away.

Analysts do not believe Russia has enough military capacity to completely collapse Ukrainian lines anywhere across the frontline, including Dnipropetrovsk.

"They do not have -- and will not have -- the resources to move forward quickly," said Oleksiy Kopytko, a military analyst and former advisor to the defence ministry.

Impact on peace talks?

In 2014, Moscow took control of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula, and in 2022 -- months after launching its invasion -- claimed control over four eastern and southern Ukrainian regions.

It now wants Ukraine to recognise its recognition of these territories as part of Russia for a ceasefire, even though it doesn't fully control them.

Moscow's advance into Dnipropetrovsk could give the Kremlin a pretext to also claim that region as part of Russia, escalating its maximalist negotiating position.

Several rounds of direct talks, however, between Kyiv and Moscow this year appear to have already stalled.