$14 billion windfall? How North Korea profited from Russia’s war in Ukraine | Explained

File photo of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (2nd R) speaking with Russia's President Vladimir Putin in Beijing. (Photo by KCNA VIA KNS / AFP)

A Seoul report estimates North Korea earned up to $14.4 billion by deploying troops and exporting arms to Russia for the Ukraine war, potentially undermining sanctions and boosting its foreign reserves, with most payments likely in military tech rather than cash.

Did our AI summary help?

North Korea may have generated as much as $14 billion by supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine through troop deployments and arms exports, according to a recent report by the Seoul based Institute for National Security Strategy.

The report, titled “The Economic Impact of North Korea’s Deployments to Russia and Military Exports”, estimates that Pyongyang earned between $7.67 billion and $14.4 billion between August 2023 and December 2025.

These earnings come primarily from sending military personnel and supplying weapons to Russia, marking one of the most significant financial inflows for the heavily sanctioned regime in recent years.

Limited visible payments so far

Despite the large estimated earnings, the report notes that confirmed deliveries of fuel, weapons and food from Russia to North Korea are much lower in value.

These visible exchanges are estimated at between $580 million and $1.5 billion, suggesting that only a small portion of the total compensation has been received in direct or easily measurable forms.

According to the Institute for National Security Strategy, the remaining share may have been or is expected to be delivered through less transparent channels.

The report states that between 80 percent and 96 percent of the payments could come in the form of sensitive military technology, precision components or specialised materials rather than cash.

Troop deployments and arms exports

South Korean intelligence agencies have tracked North Korea’s military involvement in phases.

According to Seoul’s intelligence authorities, troop deployments began in October 2024. Larger scale deployments were carried out in four phases, including January, August, and from September to December 2025.

At the same time, North Korea’s arms exports to Russia have steadily increased.

Since July 2023, Pyongyang has supplied a range of military equipment, including artillery systems, shells and guided or ballistic missiles.

These transfers have played a key role in boosting North Korea’s wartime revenues.

Sanctions impact could weaken

Experts cited in the report warn that the financial gains from this cooperation could undermine the effectiveness of international sanctions imposed on North Korea.

If Pyongyang eventually receives the full value of its military support, the sanctions regime aimed at limiting its access to foreign currency could lose much of its impact.

The findings suggest that North Korea may be using strategic military cooperation to offset economic pressure imposed by years of sanctions.

Foreign reserves could rise sharply

The report also highlights the potential impact of these earnings on North Korea’s foreign currency reserves.

Without the income from troop deployments and arms exports, the country’s reserves are estimated to fall to around $7.25 billion by the end of 2025. This would represent a decline of about $3.35 billion compared to 2016 levels.

However, when these additional earnings are included, the picture changes significantly.

The report estimates that reserves could increase by between $5.2 billion and $12.56 billion, reaching a total of $15.8 billion to $23.16 billion. The average estimate stands at around $19.8 billion.

This sharp difference underscores how military cooperation with Russia could reshape North Korea’s financial position despite continued international restrictions.

Overall, the report suggests that Pyongyang’s involvement in the Ukraine war may not only have strategic implications but also provide a substantial economic lifeline at a time when sanctions continue to constrain its economy.