Putin's India visit may focus on RIC troika revival: How Trump's trade war is nudging Delhi closer to Moscow, Beijing

In this handout picture taken and released by Photo host brics-russia2024.ru on October 22, 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attend a concert prior to an informal dinner on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to visit India later this month for a high-stakes meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at a time when tensions between New Delhi and Washington are escalating over India’s continued trade with Moscow. The proposed visit – confirmed by National Security Adviser Ajit Doval – comes amid US President Donald Trump imposing 50 per cent tariffs on Indian imports, citing New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil.

Against this backdrop, the possible revival of the Russia-India-China (RIC) Troika is expected to be high on the agenda when Modi and Putin meet. The format, once seen as a counterweight to Western blocs, has gained renewed significance as all three nations face mounting pressure from Washington, particularly through economic coercion.

Adding to the geopolitical churn, Prime Minister Modi is also scheduled to visit China on August 31 to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit, where he may meet Chinese President Xi Jinping — another key member of the RIC triangle. Together, these two visits could signal a broader regional recalibration aimed at insulating Eurasian powers from US-led economic and diplomatic pressures.

In May this year, Moscow had pushed to revive the long-dormant RIC trilateral format, signalling its intent to reposition itself at the heart of Eurasian diplomacy amid growing geopolitical fragmentation, deepening ties with China, and India's strategic hedging between the West and East.

What is RIC?

The RIC format was initiated in the late 1990s by former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov as a strategic counterbalance to Western dominance. Over the years, it facilitated over 20 ministerial-level meetings, fostering cooperation in foreign policy, economics, and security among the three nations. However, the format lost momentum following the 2020 Galwan Valley incident, which severely strained India-China relations.

Although overshadowed by groupings like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), RIC remains important due to the sheer geopolitical heft of the three member states.

Why the RIC Troika may be on the table during Putin’s visit to India

The revival of the Russia-India-China (RIC) Troika may be high on the agenda when Russian President Vladimir Putin visits India later this month. One of the main reasons behind this renewed interest is the growing pressure all three countries are facing from the United States, especially due to Donald Trump’s latest tariff moves.

Trump’s administration has imposed new tariffs on a wide range of countries, including India, China, and trade partners linked to Russia. India, for instance, now faces an additional 25% tariff (total of 50%) after it refused to stop buying discounted oil from Russia. China is already facing broad trade restrictions, and Russia remains heavily sanctioned due to its war in Ukraine.

This has created a shared concern among the RIC nations. All three now see US trade policy and secondary sanctions as a threat. This common ground could push them to work more closely together, especially in areas like energy, defence, and building alternative financial systems that reduce reliance on the US dollar.

As Trump’s aggressive trade tactics isolate the US on the world stage, Moscow, New Delhi, and Beijing are exploring ways to strengthen their own cooperation. They are discussing shifting more trade to local currencies and presenting a united front on global issues in platforms like the United Nations.

In short, rising Western pressure may push the RIC countries to revive their dialogue and coordination, making the Troika a key part of Putin’s upcoming talks in New Delhi.

Why the RIC format matters for India

India has usually kept some distance from the Russia-India-China (RIC) format, especially because of its border tensions with China. But today’s changing global situation may push India to take a fresh look at this grouping.

One key reason is strategic autonomy. India wants to stay independent in its foreign policy and avoid being seen as siding too closely with either the United States or China. The RIC format allows India to work with both Russia and China on specific issues, without making strong or permanent alliances.

Energy and security are also big concerns. Russia and China are important for India’s energy needs and its aim to build a multipolar world order. Through RIC, India can cooperate on important global issues like reforming the United Nations, improving international financial systems, and pushing for fair access to climate finance and green technologies, without being forced to follow anyone’s ideology.

Lastly, RIC gives India a buffer against Western pressure. As tensions with the US rise, especially over trade and defence ties with Russia, India can use RIC as a way to show it has other partnerships and options. It strengthens India's position on the global stage without needing to choose sides.

What to expect from Putin’s visit

With Putin’s visit likely in late August, key agenda items will include:

• Defence cooperation and continued military-technical exchanges
• Energy trade via long-term Rupee-Ruble contracts
• RIC revival or at least stronger trilateral consultations on global trade
• Coordination on multilateral issues ahead of the G20, SCO, or BRICS summits