Pakistan sends rare earths to the US for the first time, walking a tightrope between China and Washington

Why Pakistan’s minerals deal with the US may deepen its dependence, not end it

Pakistan has sent its first-ever shipment of rare earth and critical minerals, including copper concentrate, antimony, and neodymium, to the United States, according to the local daily, Dawn.

The move follows a $500-million MoU between US Strategic Metals (USSM) and Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organisation (FWO) to build processing and refining facilities on Pakistani soil.

It’s being sold domestically as a win for Pakistan’s economic revival. But zoom out, and the story’s real weight lies in what it signals:

Washington quietly reopening strategic channels with Pakistan, and Islamabad betting its resource future on US backing, at a time when its traditional ally China still dominates its infrastructure and mining ecosystem.

Why minerals are the new oil in global diplomacy

Critical minerals, lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements, are the currency of modern power. They underpin electric vehicles, chips, defence systems, and renewable energy.

China currently processes over 70 percent of the world’s rare earths, giving it disproportionate leverage over global supply chains. The US, EU, Japan, and India are now scrambling to build alternate sourcing routes.

In that race, Pakistan has appeared out of nowhere, holding an estimated $6 trillion worth of untapped deposits, from Balochistan’s copper-gold fields to Gilgit-Baltistan’s mineral belts. The deal with USSM is America’s first real attempt to test whether those reserves can be integrated into non-Chinese supply chains.

Why the US needs Pakistan (again)

Washington’s mineral diplomacy is now part of a larger Indo-Pacific equation.

After building partnerships with India, Australia, and Mongolia, the US now appears to be quietly reviving transactional engagement with Pakistan’s military establishment, this time not through aid, but investment.

For the US, the logic is pragmatic:

• Pakistan provides logistical access to Central Asian mineral routes.
• Its military’s FWO ensures project security and state control, a key US concern after messy private ventures elsewhere.
• The deal helps keep China guessing, particularly near Gwadar, the flagship of Beijing’s Belt and Road ambitions.
• It’s economic engagement dressed as strategic insurance.

The China conundrum

Beijing won’t be pleased.

China has poured tens of billions into the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), building highways, ports, and energy plants. It also controls mining blocks through joint ventures.

Now, a US-linked mineral refinery and potential use of Pasni Port, barely 75 km from Gwadar, looks like Washington encroaching into Beijing’s backyard.

This sets up Pakistan for a balancing act it has rarely managed well: take American money without upsetting Chinese muscle. History suggests that’s easier said than done.

Domestic backlash: déjà vu of dependency

Domestically, the deal has already drawn fire.

According to ANI, the opposition PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) calls it a 'secretive sellout', likening it to colonial-era trade pacts that began with commercial concessions and ended in control.

Questions remain unanswered:

Who controls the royalties and ownership stakes?

Will provinces like Balochistan, which host the resources, get fair revenue shares?

What environmental safeguards or public disclosures exist?

India’s vantage point: cautious observation

For India, this is both familiar and revealing.

New Delhi is already part of Washington’s Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), focusing on responsible sourcing and tech transfer. But the US move into Pakistan shows Washington is widening its net, not replacing partners, but hedging bets.

The Pakistan-US mineral partnership could create parallel routes in the region’s resource architecture, possibly complicating India’s own mineral diplomacy in the longer term.

That said, Pakistan’s instability and opaque governance make it unlikely to compete with India’s more structured supply-chain integration in the near term.

The bottom line: a pawn on the board, not a player yet

Pakistan’s $500-million mineral partnership gives it symbolic entry into the critical minerals race, but it’s still more pawn than power.

The US will test, not trust. China will watch, not withdraw.

And Pakistan, once again, stands at the crossroads of opportunity and overreach, using minerals to mine relevance in a world that remembers its old dependencies too well.