Pakistan’s risky honeymoon phase with Trump: 'US may eventually run out of patience'

Pakistan and US seem to have entered a phase of “honeymoon diplomacy” with both sides appeasing each other at a time when President Donald Trump is running roughshod over most of American allies and strategic partners.

In the last few days, US has hosted Pakistan army chief Gen Asim Munir twice, allowed him to make open nuclear threats from American soil, declared Baloch Liberation Army as a terror outfit, announced a cryptocurrency partnership with Islamabad and another to develop Pakistan's oil reserves.

Pakistan has measured its every step with a clear intention to appease Trump in his second term and avoid his wrath that marked bilateral ties with US during much of his first term.

Husain Haqqani, former Pakistan ambassador to US, told The Financial Times that Trump needs success stories to proclaim and Pakistan is "happy to give them to him".

While Pakistan and US may appear to be in a lockstep now, Trump's mercurial disposition and lofty expectations may eventually catch up with the honeymoon phase.

Michael Kugelman, US-based South Asia analyst, was quoted as saying by Dawn that the upswing in ties is due to Pakistan's repeated attempts to get the attention of a "relentlessly transactional administration".

Kugelman also warned that the ties shouldn't be views as having "long-term potential" since policies change from one administration to another, sometimes even midstream.

The transactional nature of the US-Pakistan ties accentuate the shaky foundation on which they stand.

Speaking to Financial Times, Haqqani noted that Trump is playing the "Pakistan card" to try and gain more advantage with India. He said that the US President wants to see if it will force New Delhi to accept his terms amid ongoing trade negotiations.

This signals that if a trade deal is agreed upon, Pakistan may again be put on a backburner.

Moreover, Pakistan is playing a risky game of overpromising things that it may not be able to deliver.

Hussain Nadim, a US-based critic of Munir’s rule, told Financial Times that Pakistan's "unelected leaders and military officials" are willing to overpromise to appeal to what they think is Trump’s "narcissism".

"Trump and his advisers may eventually run out of patience when they see that Pakistan is not delivering.”

Kugelman pointed out that while Pakistan has promised Trump things to catch his attention, its critical minerals are mostly found in highly insecure areas. “This administration could well lose interest and move on. It’s nothing if not fickle.”

A report in The Financial Times also said that Trump may snub Pakistan if it fails to delivers things it has promised. It further noted that the so-called natural resource riches in pakistan are either "unproven" or "lie in volatile provinces" hit by insurgencies.

Even Pakistan’s proven oil reserves are modest by global standards. While some studies suggest that Pakistan might possess up to 9.1 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil, particularly in the Indus Basin, these figures remain speculative since no commercial-scale exploration or extraction has validated them to date.

Two diplomats told The Financial Times that Trump is even hoping that Pakistan may recognise Israel, which is very unlikely since Islamabad only recently refused to join the Abraham Accords.

And not to forget, Pakistan continues to remain a bailout-dependent economy which has often used diplomacy and the bait of counterterror operations to secure loans from international institutions.

Thus, the renaissance in Pakistan-US ties cannot be seen without the volatility it accompanies.