Pakistan’s ‘rare earth treasure’: Can Asim Munir’s Reko Diq gamble save a sinking economy?

Munir insists the project will start generating at least $2 billion annually from next year, erasing debt and reshaping Pakistan’s economy.

Pakistan Army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir has placed the country’s hopes of an economic revival on its untapped mineral reserves, describing them as a “rare earth treasure” that could transform Islamabad’s fortunes.

Speaking through a column published in Pakistan’s Geo Group, Munir was quoted as saying Pakistan’s mineral wealth could reduce debt and “soon make Pakistan one of the most prosperous societies.” The remarks, relayed by columnist Suhail Warraich after a private meeting with Munir in Brussels, come as Islamabad struggles with record debt, political volatility, and a stalled IMF program.

Munir’s comments follow growing US interest in Pakistan’s mineral reserves, particularly rare earths critical to electronics and defense. Washington is aggressively seeking alternatives to China, which currently dominates global rare earth supply chains.

The Washington Post reported that US President Donald Trump’s outreach to Islamabad is “less about oil than minerals.” This shift comes as US-India ties falter, Washington recently slapped 50 percent tariffs on Indian goods, while Pakistan just received its first-ever crude shipment from the US under a new trade deal.

At the center of Munir’s plan is the Reko Diq mine in Balochistan, home to one of the world’s largest untapped copper and gold deposits, with 12.3 million tonnes of copper and over 20 million ounces of gold.

Munir insists the project will start generating at least $2 billion annually from next year, erasing debt and reshaping Pakistan’s economy. “Pakistan is sitting on a treasure of rare minerals,” he said, confident that the long-delayed project will finally deliver.

But Reko Diq is not just about economics—it is entangled in geopolitics. China, already a dominant force through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), could turn Reko Diq into its next strategic foothold. Munir, while not naming Beijing directly, stressed the need for “balanced partnerships” with both Washington and Beijing.

This isn’t the first time Pakistan has promised riches from underground. In 2019, then-Prime Minister Imran Khan hyped a “massive oil discovery” that fizzled after drilling results proved disappointing. That memory fuels skepticism about Munir’s lofty projections.

Meanwhile, Baloch separatist groups have warned against resource exploitation, calling projects like Reko Diq exploitative. Insurgency in the region, coupled with Pakistan’s economic fragility, poses risks that billions in promised revenues may never materialize.

Munir’s strategy is clear: attract US diplomatic support without alienating China, whose money and engineering expertise will likely determine whether Reko Diq ever pays off. “We will not sacrifice one friend for the other,” he reportedly told Warraich.

For now, Pakistan’s future looks buried in the sands of Balochistan, whether that future glitters with copper and gold or fades into another broken promise depends on how Munir’s gamble plays out.