Opec+ ramps up oil output in bid to unwind cuts faster amid Trump tariff shock

Opec+ ramps up oil output in bid to unwind cuts faster amid Trump tariff shock

Opec+ announced a significant jump in oil production for July, accelerating its rollback of long-standing supply cuts in response to mounting economic uncertainty and shifting geopolitical dynamics. Eight of the group’s members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, will raise output by a combined 411,000 barrels per day (b/d) next month — their third consecutive monthly increase.

The group is now poised to restore as much as 1.4 million b/d of supply between April and the end of July. This aggressive pace puts the coalition on track to reverse its 2.2 million b/d voluntary cuts a full year earlier than originally planned, potentially completing the unwind by September 2025 instead of 2026, the Financial Times reported.

A reshaped strategy under pressure

Opec+ has been limiting production since 2022 to support oil prices, implementing an initial 2 million b/d cut across the group and a voluntary 1.65 million b/d reduction by eight core members. A subsequent voluntary cut of 2.2 million b/d by the same eight members — including 1 million b/d from Saudi Arabia — is now being reversed at an accelerated pace.

The shift comes amid a challenging backdrop for global oil markets, with President Donald Trump’s tariffs casting a long shadow over economic growth. The uncertainty has put downward pressure on prices, prompting a rethink within the cartel.

“OPEC+ isn’t just turning [on] the taps — they’re rewriting the script,” said Jorge León of Rystad Energy, a former Opec official. “May rang the alarm, June removed all doubt and … July feels like a loaded [gun] barrel.”

Saudi Arabia leads the push

Driving the rapid reversal is Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman, who has expressed frustration over the unequal distribution of production cuts. While Riyadh slashed output by nearly 20% — the largest share of any member — others like Kazakhstan consistently breached their quotas.

Saudi Arabia has cut production to 9 million b/d, the lowest level since 2011 outside the Covid-19 slump. But with prices failing to stay high and some members refusing to comply with agreed caps, Riyadh is determined to reclaim lost market share.

Kazakhstan, for instance, reportedly told Opec it would not comply with production limits, according to Interfax.

Political undertones ahead of Trump visit

The timing of the move also intersects with geopolitics. Allowing oil prices to soften has reportedly won praise from President Trump, who visited the region this month and publicly praised Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Analysts believe this could be part of a broader strategy by Riyadh to maintain influence in Washington and reset its position as a reliable supplier amid growing economic turbulence.

What comes next?

With the 2.2 million b/d tranche nearly restored, attention now turns to the second voluntary cut of 1.65 million b/d. That reduction was not expected to be lifted until at least 2027, but Rystad’s León says Opec+ may revise its production ceiling sooner than expected.

“As the group accelerates its output strategy and with prices holding steady despite rising supply, a broader recalibration could be imminent,” he said.