‘One In, One Out’ migrant deal explained: How UK and France plan to tackle channel crossings

Migrants are escorted ashore from a UK Border Force vessel in Dover, southeast England, on November 16, 2023, after having been picked up at sea while attempting to cross the English Channel.

The United Kingdom and France have reached a new understanding aimed at curbing the rising number of migrants crossing the English channel – a perilous journey that has claimed hundreds of lives. The agreement was unveiled during French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent visit to the UK, marking the first visit by a European leader since Brexit. At the heart of the discussions between Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer was a bilateral pact dubbed the ‘One In, One Out’ migrant deal.

The new migration pact aims to detail illegal crossing from France to the UK by establishing a reciprocal mechanism. For every migrant who is returned to France after crossing the Channel illegally, France will send one migrant with verified family connections in the UK through a legal and secure route.

The arrangement is designed to operate under strict security checks and will only apply to asylum seekers who have not attempted an illegal entry.

“In exchange for every return, a different individual will be allowed to come here via a safe route – controlled and legal – subject to strict security checks, and only open to those who have not tried to enter the UK illegally,” Starmer said.

The deal, which Starmer described as a pilot programme, will be paid for by the UK Home Office and is still awaiting final legal clearance from European authorities.

Under the agreement, migrants attempting to reach the UK in small boats will be detained upon arrival. They may then be returned to France, pending an appeals process. For each individual sent back, a different person applying through legitimate asylum channels will be accepted into the UK.

Though no official numbers were disclosed, reports suggest around 50 migrants could be sent back per week, amounting to roughly 2,600 individuals annually — a small fraction of total crossings.

The goal is to dismantle human smuggling networks and reduce incentives for dangerous, illegal crossings.

“We all agree that the situation in the Channel cannot go on as it is so we’re bringing new tactics into play and a new intent to tackle illegal migration and break the business model of the criminal gangs,” said Starmer.

He added that this effort was part of a broader push to apply “collective strength and leadership” to the issue, calling it an “unprecedented scale” crackdown on illegal work in the UK.

“The jobs they have been promised in the UK will no longer exist because of the nationwide crackdown we’re delivering on illegal working,” Starmer said.

Macron, meanwhile, framed the problem as one exacerbated by Brexit.

“Many people in your country explained that Brexit would make it possible to fight more effectively against illegal immigration,” Macron said.

“But it’s in fact since Brexit [that] the UK has no migratory agreement with the EU. It creates an incentive to make the crossing, the precise opposite of what Brexit had promised.”

According to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), over 21,000 migrants have already crossed into the UK via the Channel in 2025 — a 56 per cent rise from the same period in 2024.

In 2024 alone, 82 migrants died attempting the crossing, the deadliest year on record.

This year, at least 18 deaths have already been reported.

Migrants typically come from conflict-ridden nations like Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, Vietnam, and Eritrea, with these groups making up 61 per cent of recent arrivals.

They often pay criminal gangs large sums to make the journey in overcrowded, flimsy dinghies.

While Starmer touts the agreement as a deterrent, immigration experts are cautious.

Peter Walsh, senior researcher at the Migration Observatory at Oxford University, told Al Jazeera: “A returns deal may have an impact if it affects enough people. We don’t know how many people could plausibly be returned to France under this deal, but there’s a risk that if an insufficiently low share of individuals are returned, then people wishing to reach the UK by small boat may see the risk of return as another risk worth taking – alongside the much greater risk of getting in a small boat.”

Previously, the UK had explored deporting illegal migrants to Rwanda, but that plan was blocked by courts and later abandoned.

Critics from both the right and the opposition benches have slammed the new deal.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said: “I don’t think this so-called deal will make any difference at all. If we even try to deport people across the Channel we will run straight into the European Convention on Human Rights… The lawyers will have a field day.”

“Nobody who crosses the English Channel illegally, in a boat, should ever be given refugee status… and if we did that, it would stop within a fortnight.”

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp from the Conservative Party also criticized the move.

“This deal will mean that 94 percent of illegal migrants crossing the Channel will get to stay. That is pathetic and will not deter anyone. By contrast, the Rwanda deterrent would have seen 100 percent of illegal migrants removed and that would have worked to deter people crossing the Channel. Keir Starmer’s failure continues.”