Nuclear arms race revival? Russia’s INF treaty exit and the US-India-Russia power play

Russia’s exit from the INF treaty sparks nuclear tensions (Image: AFP)

Russia has formally declared that it no longer considers itself bound by the 1987 Intermediate‑Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, effectively ending its self‑imposed constraints on deploying nuclear-capable intermediate-range missiles.

According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, the conditions for upholding the treaty had “disappeared,” and the nation no longer sees itself bound by its previous limitations.

Russia’s decision to abandon its self-imposed limits under the INF Treaty underscores rising geopolitical strain. Citing “the actions of Western countries,” the Russian Foreign Ministry warned of a “direct threat to the security of our country,” attributing it to what it described as “destabilizing missile potentials” being developed near its borders.

The ministry further cautioned that these developments could have “significant harmful consequences for regional and global stability, including a dangerous escalation of tensions between nuclear powers.”

Let’s take a closer look at what this means, who it impacts, and the potential consequences it could have going forward.

What is the INF Treaty, and why does it matter?

Intermediate-range missiles, with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (310 to 3,400 miles), were banned under the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.

Signed between the United States and the former Soviet Union, the treaty was a key Cold War arms control agreement that eliminated an entire class of nuclear-capable missiles, significantly lowering the risk of rapid nuclear escalation in Europe.

The treaty's collapse has raised concerns of a renewed Cold War-era missile crisis in Europe, similar to the 1980s when both sides deployed intermediate-range missiles on the continent.

The INF Treaty began to unravel after the US withdrew in 2019, citing alleged Russian violations. Moscow then pledged not to deploy such missiles unless the US did first a commitment it officially withdrew in 2025.

The countries most directly threatened by Russia’s exit from the INF Treaty are NATO member states in Europe particularly those near Russia’s borders as well as nations in the Asia-Pacific region.

The threat stems from Russia’s intention to redeploy intermediate-range missiles and its response to potential US deployments in locations like the Philippines and Germany, which Moscow considers hostile.

Why has Russia abandoned it? 

Russia’s decision to abandon its self-imposed moratorium under the INF Treaty reflects a steep escalation in nuclear rhetoric and military posturing from both sides.

In a strongly worded statement, Moscow declared it “no longer considers itself bound” by its “previously adopted self-restrictions” under the INF Treaty, pointing to recent US deployments of intermediate-range missiles in Europe and Asia as the primary provocation.

The Russian Foreign Ministry also highlighted rising political tensions and military threats from the US, including the deployment of American nuclear submarines to undisclosed locations, as evidence of Washington disregarding the mutual restraint once embodied by the landmark agreement.

US-Russia fallout - Where India fits in

The tensions between India and Russia escalated after US President Donald Trump issued sweeping new sanctions and threatening penalties on countries particularly India and China that continue importing Russian oil.

Trump set a deadline for  Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine and confirmed the repositioning of two U.S. nuclear submarines to combat readiness.

In response, Russia warned of the dangers of heightened nuclear rhetoric, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov urging all parties to “be very, very careful” with their language.

The US has imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods and signaled the possibility of additional punitive actions over India’s ongoing energy and defense trade with Russia. New Delhi has come under criticism for continuing to import Russian crude.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) strongly rejected the move, calling the sanctions “unjustified and unreasonable” and pledging to take “all necessary measures” to safeguard its economic and national interests. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar reaffirmed India’s support for a “fair global order” and pointed out the West’s own ongoing imports from Russia.