Is Russia-Ukraine war nearing an end? What Trump's revised peace plan actually means | Explained

US-Ukraine revise peace blueprint

A sudden surge in diplomacy has reignited discussions about a possible negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine war. Meetings in Switzerland, talks in the UAE, a revised US-Ukraine draft agreement, and renewed US engagement with Moscow mark the most active diplomatic phase in months.

US President Donald Trump said the plan has been “fine-tuned, with additional input from both sides," while Ukrainian officials describe a “common understanding" with Washington on the core points.

However, as the conflict enters its fourth year, Russia continues missile and drone strikes, battlefield advances remain incremental, and the core demands of both Kyiv and Moscow are unchanged. The key question remains: do these talks have the potential to stop the fighting?

What triggered the new diplomatic push?

The latest initiative is based on a 28-point peace plan drafted in Washington and shared with Kyiv last week. According to CNN, the draft was prepared by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, with input from Russia. Earlier discussions included Kremlin aide Kirill Dmitriev, and Ukraine’s national security chief Rustem Umerov had participated in prior exchanges.

“The selection process was robust and thorough,” the Space Force statement said. It is looking to “lead a fast-paced effort in partnership with industry to develop, demonstrate and deliver prototype interceptors.”

The proposal prompted immediate negotiations. Over the weekend, US and Ukrainian delegations met in Geneva to revise the document. Umerov wrote that “our delegations reached a common understanding on the core terms of the agreement discussed in Geneva," and noted that these principles could form the basis for more detailed agreements.

Trump has instructed Witkoff to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, while US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll has been holding direct meetings with Ukrainian and Russian representatives. Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said Driscoll is expected in Kyiv this week.

Zelenskyy also expressed readiness to meet Trump to discuss “sensitive points." Trump stated that he hopes to meet both Zelenskyy and Putin “soon, but ONLY when the deal to end this War is FINAL or, in its final stages".

Key elements of the revised peace plan

The updated draft has not been made public, but the broad contours are known:

• Ukraine would face limits on the size of its armed forces.
• The long-term bid for NATO membership could be dropped.
• Certain territories demanded by Russia might be ceded.
• Amnesty for participants in the conflict.

A Ukrainian official told CNN that while progress has been made, “it would be very wrong to say we have now the version that is accepted by Ukraine".

Territory and NATO: The biggest obstacles

Russia continues to demand control over eastern Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as full withdrawal from the Donbas, while maintaining hold over Crimea and parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine refuses to recognize these claims.

NATO membership remains a key point of contention. Moscow wants Ukraine to commit to neutrality, cap its armed forces, and halt NATO expansion. Kyiv insists on credible security guarantees and refuses to close the door on NATO membership. European governments support Ukraine’s stance that borders cannot be changed by force.

Security guarantees as an alternative

Given that NATO membership is a red line for Russia, alternative protection mechanisms are being explored. The original US plan included “reliable security guarantees” for Ukraine, with scenarios triggering coordinated US action.

European countries are now formally involved. A virtual meeting of Ukraine’s “Coalition of the Willing," chaired by French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with Rubio participating, agreed to accelerate work on security guarantees. Zelenskyy emphasized that “security decisions about Europe must include Europe," signaling European involvement in any peacekeeping arrangements.

Russia’s response

Moscow has not yet received the updated draft. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov indicated that any amendments must reflect the “spirit and letter" of discussions between Trump and Putin in Alaska earlier this year. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the government was monitoring media coverage, while Russia maintains that full territorial recognition and limits on Ukraine’s security remain non-negotiable.

US-drafted peace deal details

The US proposal asks Ukraine to:

• Pull back troops from parts of eastern Donbas.
• Allow these areas to become a neutral buffer zone recognized internationally as Russian.
• Recognize Russian control over Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the 28-point plan was created by the US with input from Russia and earlier Ukrainian points. After a full day of Geneva talks, Rubio said “tremendous” progress had been made, and Ukraine’s delegation head Andriy Yermak described discussions as “very good progress."