For India, China is 'main adversary', Pakistan an 'ancillary' threat, says US intelligence report

Pakistan modernising nuclear arsenal : US report

Islamabad views New Delhi as an "existential threat" and is prioritising the modernisation of its nuclear arsenal, the US has said in its annual Global Threat Assessment report, which comes days after India and Pakistan were involved in a furious military clash.

But India considers its neighbour an "ancillary security problem” and China as its "primary adversary”, the US Defense Intelligence Agency’s (DIA’s) worldwide threat assessment report for 2025 said.

“India views China as its primary adversary and Pakistan more as an ancillary security problem to be managed, despite cross-border attacks in mid-May by both India’s and Pakistan’s militaries," the report said.

Pakistan regards India as “an existential threat and will continue to pursue its military modernisation effort, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons, to offset India’s conventional military advantage”, the report said, as it talked about Islamabad’s growing dependence on Beijing for weapons.

WMDs in Pakistan’s arsenal

After the four-day military confrontation between the two countries, Pakistan is “modernising” its nuclear arsenal and maintaining the security of its nuclear materials, command and control, the report said.

As India pounded Pakistan’s air bases early this month, there were concerns about the safety of its nuclear arsenal. Before the clash, senior Pakistani leaders had issued not-so-veiled threats about nuclear weapons.

"Pakistan almost certainly procures WMD applicable goods from foreign suppliers and intermediaries," the DIA report said, referring to weapons of mass destruction.

The report noted Pakistan’s close military and economic ties with China and said its WMD programmes are largely supported by Beijing, which likely provides materials and technology to Islamabad.

Designed to inflict massive casualties and destruction, WMDs, which include nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, can cause widespread death and devastation.

Foreign materials and technology supporting Pakistan’s WMD programs are very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China, and sometimes are transshipped through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates," the report said.

Cross-border terror to continue?

Pakistan's top priorities would likely remain cross-border skirmishes with regional neighbours. "During the next year, the Pakistani military’s top priorities are likely to remain cross-border skirmishes with regional neighbors, rising attacks by Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan and Baloch nationalist militants, counterterrorism efforts, and nuclear modernization," the report said.

The recent military conflict between the two countries, the worst in decades, was triggered by a terror strike in the Kashmir Valley when 26 people, most of them tourists, were gunned down in Pahalgam on April 22.

In response, the Indian armed forces on early May 7 launched Operation Sindoor, hitting terror facilities in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir with drones and missiles.

It set off a series of strikes and counterstrikes in which drones, missiles, loitering munition and heavy artillery were used by the two sides. On May 10 afternoon, the hostilities were brought to a halt, as the two sides agreed to end all military action. The fragile truce seems to be holding, for now.

India would continue to push its “Make in India” initiative to boost its domestic defence industry, mitigate supply chain concerns, and modernise its military, it said.

“India continued to modernize its military in 2024, conducting a test of the nuclear-capable developmental Agni-I Prime MRBM and the Agni-V multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle while also commissioning its second nuclear-powered submarine to strengthen its nuclear triad and bolster its ability to deter adversaries," it added.