Hurricane Melissa explained: What the forecast means for Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas

A wave crashes, as Hurricane Melissa approaches, in the Harbour View neighbourhood of Kingston, Jamaica. (Courtesy: Reuters photo)

Hurricane Melissa intensified into a Category 5 system early Monday, with winds strong enough to devastate structures and uproot trees. Its slow pace means the storm will linger over Jamaica, Cuba, and possibly the Bahamas, dumping rainfall measured in feet rather than inches, the New York Times reported.

Monday: The approach

By Monday night, Melissa’s 11-mile-wide eye was inching toward Jamaica’s southern coast. Authorities urged residents to remain indoors as life-threatening flooding and landslides were expected. Mountain regions could experience the most violent winds, lasting for 24 hours or more. A storm surge of nine to thirteen feet above ground level was forecast for coastal areas.

Tuesday: Landfall on Jamaica

The hurricane is almost certain to make landfall on Jamaica’s south coast Tuesday morning and exit the north coast later in the day. While slight weakening is possible, officials stressed that the difference between Category 4 and 5 is negligible in terms of destruction. Rainfall could exceed forty inches, triggering landslides and widespread flooding.

Tuesday night: Cuba next

After crossing Jamaica, Melissa is projected to make a second landfall in southeastern Cuba overnight Tuesday or early Wednesday, bringing a surge of six to nine feet and up to two feet of rain. Although the storm will weaken slightly, it will still be powerful enough to cause serious damage before moving toward the Bahamas.

Midweek: Bahamas under threat

By Wednesday, the system will sweep over the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, possibly making another landfall. Four to eight inches of rain, a strong storm surge, and hurricane-force winds are expected. The rainfall over Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba will begin to ease by then.

Later track and global impact

Melissa is forecast to accelerate northward by Thursday, possibly nearing Bermuda before heading out to sea. The chance of direct US landfall remains low, though tropical moisture could feed a separate rain system along the East Coast later in the week. Meteorologists warn that the storm could still influence weather patterns into the weekend, with the Canadian Maritimes potentially in its path.