How Tuesday’s US elections will reveal Trump’s true political strength

US President Donald Trump

US President Donald Trump has spent the past week abroad, discussing trade, nuclear weapons, and rare earths across Asia. He hasn’t campaigned in states voting this week — not in New Jersey, Virginia, or California. But Democrats and Republicans alike are still talking about him. Even without being on the ballot, Trump remains the defining force behind voter behaviour and party strategy heading into next year’s midterms, the New York Times reported.

A test case in New Jersey

The New Jersey governor’s race is being watched for signs of how firmly Trump’s base still holds. Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli, once a mild-mannered centrist, now sounds more like Trump — railing against “open borders” and aligning with far-right figures. His gamble is that copying Trump’s tone can energize conservatives in a blue state without alienating swing voters. If it works, it could redefine Republican strategy in Democrat-dominated states.

The Latino shift on the radar

Trump’s 2024 performance in New Jersey narrowed the Democratic margin to under six percentage points. Every majority-Hispanic township swung toward him by an average of 25 points. Tuesday’s vote will show whether that shift was a durable realignment or a one-time reaction to Trump himself. Ciattarelli has leaned into that possibility, campaigning actively in Latino and Black neighbourhoods that were once Democratic strongholds.

The New York mayor’s race Trump can’t resist

Trump has also tried to insert himself into New York City’s mayoral race, where Democrat Zohran Mamdani faces former Governor Andrew Cuomo running as an independent. Trump has alternated between threats to cut federal funds and offers of support to rival candidates — despite the Republican Party having no realistic chance in the city. His focus seems more personal than political: a lingering fascination with his hometown’s politics.

Newsom’s quiet 2028 rehearsal

In California, Governor Gavin Newsom is expected to win his redistricting ballot measure — a move framed as pushback to Trump’s mid-decade redistricting push. But it’s also building him a national base. Newsom’s campaign raised $114 million in less than three months, including $38 million from small donors nationwide. It’s not just a policy victory; it’s an early test run for a possible 2028 presidential bid.

What Tuesday could reveal

The results across states won’t change Trump’s presidency, but they will signal whether his movement can outlast his presence on the ballot. If his supporters continue turning out for Trump-style candidates, it could cement a Republican strategy rooted in his populist messaging. If not, it may expose the limits of a brand that relies too heavily on his name — and not enough on broader party appeal.