How Iraq’s November election could redefine Iran’s regional reach

Iran’s influence faces electoral test

Iraq will hold parliamentary elections on 11 November, a vote analysts say Iran will monitor closely as it seeks to preserve influence over its neighbour after suffering significant regional setbacks during the Gaza war.

Over the past two years, Iran-backed groups such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Huthis in Yemen have suffered heavy losses to Israel. Tehran itself endured an unprecedented Israeli bombing campaign in June—briefly joined by the United States—and lost a key ally with the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria last year.

Weakened regionally, Iran now aims to consolidate power in Iraq, which since the 2003 U.S. invasion has been a cornerstone of its regional strategy. Tehran wields influence through Shiite political blocs and allied armed groups that play decisive roles in appointing leaders, including current Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

“Tehran retains its influence as long as its allies hold decision-making power,” political analyst Ihsan al-Shammari told AFP.

Balancing Tehran and Washington

Iraq continues its delicate balancing act between Tehran and Washington, serving as a stage for proxy tensions. Pro-Iranian militias attacked U.S. positions in Iraq early in the Gaza conflict, prompting retaliatory strikes, though they notably avoided engagement during the 12-day Iran-Israel war.

Analyst Munqith Dagher observed that “Iran is no longer in a position to impose its conditions,” but added that it will continue seeking to influence Iraqi politics.

Sadr’s boycott and declining public faith

In the 2021 elections, influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr’s bloc won the most seats before withdrawing from parliament. The legislature is now dominated by the Iran-aligned Coordination Framework, which backs Prime Minister Sudani.

Sadr has refused to participate this year, labelling the vote “flawed” and urging supporters to boycott. Voter enthusiasm has also waned; Chatham House predicts participation could fall to its lowest since 2003. The think tank noted Iraqis “increasingly view elections not as a way to influence policy, but as a performative act with little impact on governance.”

More than 21 million Iraqis are eligible to elect 329 lawmakers, leading to the selection of a president—largely a ceremonial role—and a prime minister after extensive negotiations. By convention, the premiership goes to a Shiite, the presidency to a Kurd, and the parliamentary speakership to a Sunni.

Washington’s countermoves and strategic stakes

The United States, meanwhile, is actively working to reduce Tehran’s sway. “There is a real desire on the part of the U.S. to change the domestic political landscape,” said former adviser Ibrahim al-Sumaidaie.

Washington has sanctioned Iraqis accused of helping Tehran evade sanctions and deepened its footprint in Iraq’s oil, technology, and healthcare sectors. “The U.S. expects the next prime minister to deliver tangible steps that limit Iranian influence,” said Tamer Badawi of the UK-based RUSI think tank.

The U.S. maintains 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria as part of the anti-ISIS coalition. Mark Savaya, the new U.S. special envoy, recently emphasised the importance of “a fully sovereign Iraq, free from malign external interference, including from Iran and its proxies.”

Kurdish politics and representation

The election will also include Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region, where rivalry between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) remains intense.

At least 25% of seats are reserved for women, with nine seats allocated to minorities. Over 7,700 candidates, nearly one-third of them women, are contesting in a nation of about 46 million.