Gaza, Bagram, Kashmir, or something else entirely? Decoding Trump’s closed-door talks with Shehbaz and Munir

Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif and Army chief Asim Munir during their meeting with US President Donald Trump in The Oval Office.

When Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif walked into the Oval Office with his Army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir late Thursday, it was more than a courtesy call. US President Donald Trump rolled out a closed-door welcome that Islamabad is already selling at home as a diplomatic triumph: after years of American suspicion, its civilian leadership and military brass were now seated across the oval table in what seems like vindication.

Before the meeting, Trump praised US-Pakistan relations and called Shehbaz and Munir “great leaders.” Speaking to reporters at the Oval Office, he referred to Munir – seen as Pakistan’s de facto leader – as a “great guy.”

“We have a great leader coming, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, and the Field Marshal. Field Marshal is a very great guy, and so is the Prime Minister, both, and they’re coming, and they may be in this room right now," the President told journalists.

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The meeting follows a US-Pakistan trade deal and comes shortly after the leaders briefly met at the UN General Assembly in New York. Trump’s recent warmth towards Pakistan has raised eyebrows, as he had earlier called Islamabad a “terrorist safe haven” that deceived the United States.

For India it is a warning signal. Trump may posture as a neutral broker, but his growing overtures to Islamabad are a strategic pivot with menacing implications for the region.

The setting and optics

The meeting, delayed by Trump’s earlier press engagement, extended for over an hour. It was closed to media, as has become standard for Trump’s most sensitive encounters. Also present were Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This was more than a perfunctory handshake.

Sharif had already courted Trump on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, attending closed sessions with leaders from Muslim and Arab nations over regional security and Gaza. Even before the door closed, the theatrical messaging was already in full play.

What was likely discussed

Though no formal script has emerged, reports and past patterns allow us to draw a picture of the expected themes.

The US-Pakistan trade deal concluded in July is supposed to have loomed large in these talks. The agreement envisions US support in developing Pakistan’s oil reserves and promises reduced tariffs. Pakistan’s overtures toward critical minerals including copper, rare earths and gold – majorly in the restive Balochistan province – are part of its strategy to shift from the image of a security client to that of a resource partner.

Trump’s willingness to lean in on mining ventures signals a transactional streak. He is less concerned about democracy or human rights than extraction and leverage.

Trump also looks at Pakistan as a key to his renewed interest in Afghanistan. His plan to retake the Bagram air base near Kabul is expected to have been prominently discussed. Islamabad may be pressed to cooperate logistically, diplomatically, or in intelligence sharing. This is a dangerous gambit. The Taliban has warned that any Pakistani cooperation with the US would make Pakistan an enemy.

Trump could also extract diplomatic commitments regarding Iran, Gulf states or the Gaza conflict. The presence of Munir points directly to negotiations over military cooperation and strategic alignment.

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The meeting is emblematic of Islamabad’s carefully cultivated strategy of playing the US as a partner in the Middle East, while keeping India at arm’s length. Pakistan’s appeal to the United States in the Middle East is built on multiple pillars. Its longstanding relationships with Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, give it a level of influence that the US finds useful in a region roiled by conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Gaza.

The Kashmir overture

One remarkable statement credited to US officials was that “Kashmir is a direct issue between India and Pakistan” and Trump is “open to help if asked.” While this phrase is diplomatically cautious, its implications are corrosive. By framing Kashmir as a bilateral but potentially mediated issue, Trump is signalling willingness to insert the US into the dispute at Pakistan’s invitation. It is a soft nudge to Islamabad that it can revive its long-sought American role in the dispute even if unofficially.

Strategic messaging

Beyond substance, this meeting crafts a narrative. Pakistan is no longer a pariah, Trump is no longer tethered to India, and the US retains options in South Asia. By championing Sharif fairly publicly, Trump also broadcasts he is shifting alliances. It is a reminder to New Delhi that strategic certainty is giving way to diplomatic manoeuvring.

What India must watch and counter

This American reorientation toward Pakistan should worry New Delhi deeply. India has long served as a linchpin in the US strategy to counterbalance China. Trump’s distancing from India combined with a tilt to Pakistan is destabilising that calculus.

If Pakistan secures US backing whether military, economic or diplomatic it could recoil less from aggressive postures along the Line of Control or in Afghanistan. An emboldened Islamabad may resume provocations knowing it can lean on American cover or goodwill.

The Kashmir gambit is particularly dangerous. If Pakistan can coax the US into even nominal mediation, it legitimises external interference into a core issue India considers its internal matter. Over time that may erode India’s diplomatic insulation and open the door to internationalizing Kashmir again.

On trade, the US Pakistan deal and mineral access could give Islamabad economic breathing space. India needs to double down on its own outreach to Washington, making clear that tariffs or punitive measures against India must not pave the way for American soft landings with its adversary.

The thin veneer of legitimacy

Trump, despite his bombast, is not simply unpredictable. He is transactional. His embrace of Pakistan is not a principled pivot but a gamble. He is betting that Islamabad can offer him geopolitics and payloads: access to minerals, utility in Afghanistan, leverage with Muslim states.

Pakistan, for its part, played its cards masterfully. Sharif and Munir arrived with composure, claiming the narrative that the US is returning. They lean on the optics of parity, matching diplomatic manager with military power in the same room. That posture seeks to erase past accusations of reliance and project agency.

But Pakistan’s structural flaws remain. It has a crippling economy, external debts and a chronic lack of credibility. Its return to the American orbit does not erase its history of ambivalence toward militant networks or its reliance on China. What it gains with Trump is buffer space, not a transformation.