Pakistan becomes Trump's 'broker' to leverage his Middle East game. How long before it backfires?

Pakistan is once again making desperate attempts to remain relevant in the global spotlight by exploiting regional turbulence. As South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman describes, Pakistan is “having its moment in the sun in global geopolitics, fleeting though it may be.” At a time when the Middle East is undergoing transformative churn, Islamabad is leveraging its strategic location and its nuclear status. It is trying to capitalise on opportunities presented by two unexpected developments: the downturn in India-US ties and the rapid improvement in US-Pakistan relations.

Today, Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif, accompanied by his Army chief Asim Munir, is set to meet US President Donald Trump in Washington. This comes three months after Trump hosted Munir in the White House in an unexpected move. Today’s meeting is emblematic of Islamabad’s carefully cultivated strategy of playing the US as a partner in the Middle East, while keeping India at arm’s length. For New Delhi, this is not just another diplomatic engagement; it is a reminder of Pakistan’s continued attempts to manipulate global powers while hiding the risks inherent in its approach.

Pakistan’s middleman strategy in the Middle East

Pakistan’s appeal to the United States in the Middle East is built on multiple pillars. Its longstanding relationships with Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, give it a level of influence that the US finds useful in a region roiled by conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Gaza. Kugelman notes that Pakistan’s nuclear status adds another layer of strategic value, making it a country that cannot be ignored despite its economic weakness.

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As reported by Moneycontrol earlier, the recent defence pact between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia further reinforces Islamabad’s position as a reliable partner for Washington in the Gulf. This agreement formalises military cooperation and offers the United States a channel to engage indirectly with regional actors through Pakistan. Islamabad also continues to strengthen ties with China and Turkey, giving it a multipolar advantage. By flirting with multiple powers simultaneously, Pakistan is attempting to present itself as indispensable.

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The country’s military and diplomatic elites have cultivated a narrative of indispensability. The Trump administration appears to have taken note, increasing engagement with Islamabad even as India faces growing strains in its relationship with Washington. Kugelman observes that India has long accepted that the US and Pakistan will maintain a friendly military relationship. However, this resurgence in US-Pakistan ties has become “a tension point in US-India relations” because of other simultaneous strains. The rapid strengthening of US-Pakistan ties underscores Islamabad’s capacity to exploit global shifts for its own advantage.

Islamabad exploiting global tensions

Pakistan’s playbook is the same it has used since the Cold War – presenting itself as a useful intermediary for the United States. In the current scenario, the US is navigating a complex Middle East where Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia all jostle for influence. Islamabad positions itself as a conduit through which the US can engage Gulf partners and regional crises without committing its own resources directly.

This approach contrasts sharply with India’s relationship with the United States. India’s appeal to Washington is based on its growing defence capabilities and technological strength, making it a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific. Pakistan, by contrast, relies on its ability to broker influence with third parties rather than projecting hard power itself. Kugelman’s analysis highlights this distinction: Shehbaz Sharif’s upcoming Washington visit and Field Marshal Munir’s prior meeting with Trump illustrate Pakistan’s focus on cultivating access to decision-makers rather than building intrinsic military or technological leverage.

Risks of the middleman strategy

While Pakistan’s middleman approach may offer short-term gains, it carries significant long-term risks. Kugelman points out that much of Pakistan’s leverage is tied to personalities and political timing. The influence it enjoys with the US today is heavily linked to Trump’s administration and the perception of Pakistan as a regional stabiliser. Any shift in Washington’s priorities could leave Islamabad exposed, with little domestic strength to compensate.

Moreover, the strategy of aligning with multiple global powers, including China and Turkey, is a double-edged sword. Kugelman notes that Munir’s attempts to maintain ties with both the US and China could “backfire spectacularly.” Pakistan’s opportunistic diplomacy risks alienating partners, as each relationship carries implicit expectations. Overplaying its hand may result in reduced trust from Washington and Beijing alike.

Pakistan’s economic fragility further compounds the danger. Unlike India, which has the industrial base and economic resilience to support its strategic ambitions, Pakistan remains heavily dependent on foreign aid, loans, and military assistance. Its appeal as a middleman is thus contingent on external perception rather than domestic capability. Any erosion of credibility could quickly undo years of diplomatic manoeuvring.

Historical lessons from US-Pakistan relations

The current dynamics are not unprecedented. The US-Pakistan relationship has always been transactional and cyclical, marked by periods of intense cooperation followed by abrupt breakdowns. During the Cold War, Pakistan served as a frontline ally against Soviet influence in Afghanistan, only to face American sanctions when its nuclear ambitions became apparent. More recently, Pakistan was a critical partner in the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan post-2001, yet US frustration over Islamabad’s ties with militant groups repeatedly strained the relationship.

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Kugelman’s insights suggest that Pakistan is repeating a familiar pattern. By emphasising its utility to Washington in the Middle East, Islamabad hopes to secure attention, aid, and strategic leverage. However, history indicates that such “love affairs” with the United States tend to end badly when the transactional benefits diminish or when trust erodes.

Why India should watch closely

India’s approach to the United States is fundamentally different. Its strong defence posture and technological prowess make it a partner of choice in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Unlike Pakistan, India does not need to rely on the perception of being a regional middleman to gain strategic relevance. For New Delhi, the resurgence of US-Pakistan ties is a reminder that Islamabad will continue to seek short-term gains at the expense of regional stability.

The meetings between Shehbaz Sharif, Asim Munir, and Trump are thus more than diplomatic formalities. They are a signal of Pakistan’s ongoing attempts to influence US policy in the Middle East and a warning of the potential destabilizing effects on India’s interests. Kugelman emphasizes that while Pakistan may enjoy temporary attention, it does not possess the structural capabilities to sustain this influence independently.

The middleman’s motivations

Pakistan’s motives are clear. By positioning itself as a mediator for the US, it gains access to financial support, political attention, and enhanced regional leverage. Kugelman highlights the link between Pakistan’s strategic positioning and US interests, noting that Washington sees Islamabad as a practical partner for managing Gulf dynamics.

This approach allows Pakistan to mask its internal weaknesses. Economic instability, military dependency, and limited domestic industrial capacity are offset by portraying itself as indispensable in the region. However, this is a fragile foundation. Once external attention shifts, Pakistan risks exposure, both domestically and internationally.

Pakistan’s current engagement with the United States reflects a carefully orchestrated middleman strategy. Leveraging its ties with Gulf states, defence deals, and flirtation with global powers, Islamabad seeks to remain relevant in the Middle East while compensating for its lack of intrinsic strategic heft.