First china weight loss drug rival to Novo, Lilly emerges

China’s nascent weight loss drug market is poised for rapid growth, with analysts estimating it could grow to between $5.6 billion and $11.4 billion a year

Novo Nordisk A/S and Eli Lilly & Co, the pharmaceutical giants dominating the global obesity drug market, now face their first serious rival in China.

Suzhou-based Innovent Biologics Inc. secured approval last week for its treatment mazdutide, a turning point in China’s efforts to combat rising obesity and diabetes rates with local innovation. With over 600 million Chinese adults projected to be overweight by 2050, the emergence of a viable local alternative to Novo and Lilly’s blockbuster GLP-1 treatments could make weight loss drugs more accessible in the world’s second-largest economy.

China’s nascent weight loss drug market is poised for rapid growth, with analysts estimating it could grow to between $5.6 billion and $11.4 billion a year. While China still accounts for just a fraction of the projected $150 billion global pie, a raft of homegrown treatments and cheaper generics could significantly improve the availability — and affordability — of the medication.

The country has a pipeline of more than 30 late-stage obesity drug candidates under development, according to LEK Consulting. Several firms have already licensed their drugs to US or European drugmakers like AstraZeneca Plc and Merck & Co for further clinical development outside the country.

Local biotech firms are promising to overcome the limitations of current treatments, including creating long-awaited GLP-1 pills that are just as effective and safe as weekly injections peddled by Novo and Lilly.

Leading insulin producer Gan & Lee Pharmaceutical is pushing ahead a longer-acting drug that can be taken every two weeks, instead of weekly. Laekna Inc. is developing a treatment that would help patients preserve more muscle — a common concern among GLP-1 takers — while still losing fat. Hangzhou Sciwind Biosciences Co. expects China will approve its drug ecnoglutide, which led to more than 15% weight loss after 48 weeks when given at the highest dose, in early 2026.

“Multiple Chinese biopharma are developing differentiated and competitive candidates and have the potential to lead the direction of weight loss drug research and development,” said Chen Chen, head of China healthcare research at UBS Securities.

Competition is expected to ramp up next year when cheaper alternative versions of semaglutide — the active ingredient in Novo’s Wegovy — launch after semaglutide’s China patent expires. Their emergence could pressure drugmakers to lower their treatment prices, and could quickly expand access to the drugs across a country of 1.4 billion people.

Compared to Western countries where popular GLP-1 drugs are widely available for people looking to lose weight, the current penetration rate for such drugs in China is “extremely low,” said UBS’s Chen. Novo only started rolling out obesity treatments in China in 2024, and Lilly earlier this year.

A government-led campaign to curb obesity and establish new weight management clinics has fueled demand, which is now outstripping supply and leading to stock shortages, said Shawn Qu, chief of SinoUnited Health’s Endocrinology, Metabolism and Thyroid Center in Shanghai.

“It’s far from meeting the clinical need,” said Qu, who’s also an adviser to China’s National Health Commission weight management committee.

Home Court Advantage

Chinese companies’ advantages over foreign rivals in their home market include better local clinical data, established production capacity and familiarity with commercial channels, said Zhi Li, Gan & Lee’s chief business development officer.

Innovent first licensed mazdutide from Lilly in 2019, when the drug was in mid-stage testing. The Chinese company ran large clinical trials suggesting that in local patients, it appeared just as effective as Lilly’s bestselling Zepbound in helping patients lose weight. The treatment also reduced liver fat — an exciting finding in China, where fatty liver disease is prevalent.

Innovent has built a reputation developing cancer drugs like Tyvyt, a PD-1 inhibitor that’s been approved in China to treat eight different types of cancer.

With Tyvyt, “we’re competing against the big boys, like Merck, like Bristol Myers Squibb, and we end up winning,” Chief Business Officer Samuel Zhang told Bloomberg TV in June. “So we think that we’re gonna duplicate that success in the cardiovascular space.”

Innovent didn’t respond to requests for comment about mazdutide.

Still, the company faces hurdles challenging Novo and Lilly on the commercial market. Foreign medicines have long enjoyed higher trust and recognition in China, where the local biotech industry is still overcoming past quality issues.

Skepticism about the quality of domestic generic medicines also remains high among Chinese — and rare backlash from doctors earlier this year fueled questions about whether government efforts to slash treatment prices had come at the cost of efficacy.

The relative price differences between foreign and domestic weight loss drugs could be much smaller than in PD-(L)1 medicines used to treat cancer, added Yang Huang, senior analyst for China healthcare research at JP Morgan.

“We think foreign companies could be more willing to lower prices for their weight loss drugs in China,” he said, “as we have seen in the US market where major weight loss drug players have started engaging in price competition.”

Novo attributed first-quarter obesity product revenue of 704 million Danish kroner ($110 million) in China to Wegovy’s local launch. Lilly has said it plans to “gradually increase” the mainland commercial launch of bestseller Mounjaro.

Going forward, “you’ll see a lot more competitors in the China market versus anywhere else,” said Justin Wang, head of LEK’s China practice. “It will be unlikely for one or two companies to dominate the whole market.”