China to begin $13 billion Xinjiang–Tibet rail project near LAC: Why it’s setting off alarm bells in India

Workers watch as a train loaded with containers leave Chongqing Railway Container Terminal Station in southwest China's Chongqing Municipality on Tuesday, May 20, 2025. (Image used for representational purpose)

China is set to start construction on one of its most ambitious infrastructure projects -- a railway line linking Xinjiang and Tibet, running close to the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with India and potentially cutting through the disputed Aksai Chin region. The move is expected to trigger fresh concerns in New Delhi, given the strategic implications along the sensitive border.

According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the Xinjiang–Tibet railway will connect Hotan in Xinjiang to Shigatse in Tibet, where it will join the existing Lhasa–Shigatse line. Once complete, it will form a nearly 2,000 km strategic corridor linking northwestern and southwestern China.

The first section of the project is expected to run from Shigatse to Pakhuktso, passing through Rutog and skirting the Chinese side of Pangong Lake near the LAC. A portion of the route is likely to go through Aksai Chin, a region claimed by both India and China.

“This ambitious project aims to establish a 5,000 km plateau rail framework centred on Lhasa by 2035,” Hubei-based Huayuan Securities said in a research note last week.

With an average elevation of over 4,500 metres, the line will traverse the Kunlun, Karakoram, Kailash and Himalayan mountain ranges, passing through glaciers, frozen rivers and permafrost -- all of which pose significant engineering challenges.

China already operates three railway lines to Tibet: the Qinghai–Tibet line, the Lhasa–Shigatse line, and the Lhasa–Nyingchi line, the last of which runs close to the India–Arunachal Pradesh border.

Plans for the Xinjiang–Tibet line date back to 2008, when it was included in China’s revised “Medium and Long-Term Railway Network Plan” approved by the National Development and Reform Commission. The aim was to connect Tibet’s Lhasa not only to Xinjiang in the west but also to Yunnan and Chengdu in the east.

Survey and design tenders for the Hotan–Shigatse section were launched in May 2022. In April 2025, China’s transport ministry listed the Xinjiang–Tibet line among 45 major projects slated for construction this year.

Beijing has also set up a dedicated entity -- the Xinjiang–Tibet Railway Company -- to manage the project’s construction and operations. Registered with a capital of 95 billion yuan ($13.2 billion) and wholly owned by China State Railway Group, the company’s remit extends beyond rail construction to include production of transport equipment, real estate development, tourism facilities and operational management.

The possibility of the line crossing Aksai Chin is particularly worrying for India. China claims the region as part of Xinjiang, but New Delhi asserts this is a false claim, noting Beijing seized Aksai Chin in the 1950s and tightened control during the 1962 India–China war.

That conflict was triggered in part by China’s construction of the G219 highway through Aksai Chin, which cost thousands of lives on both sides. The area remains disputed to this day.

General JJ Singh (retired), former chief of Army staff, wrote in The Week in 2023, “China is very sensitive to any threat posed to its strategic artery.” Analysts say a rail link through Aksai Chin could dramatically improve China’s ability to mobilise troops and equipment to the LAC -- a prospect India sees as a significant security risk.

The railway plan comes at a delicate moment in India–China relations. The two countries are still working to ease tensions after the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes, holding multiple rounds of talks aimed at restoring peace along the border. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit China later this month to attend the Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin. He is also expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, which could mark a pivotal moment in resetting of ties amid the two countries facing diplomatic friction with the United States in view of the tariff aggression by Donald Trump.