China’s defence minister expected to skip key Asia security summit as regional tensions grow

China’s Defence Minister Admiral Dong Jun is not expected to attend the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore next week, an unusual move that signals potential turbulence within China’s military leadership and a missed opportunity for Beijing to assert diplomatic presence in a region increasingly concerned with Chinese military assertiveness.

Five people familiar with the matter told the Financial Times that China had indicated to Singapore that Dong would not participate in the annual high-level defence forum, hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The event, considered Asia’s premier security summit, has long been a platform for face-to-face dialogue between the US and Chinese defence establishments, particularly at a time when direct visits between both sides have become rare.

Silence and speculation

Beijing has not provided an official reason for the anticipated absence. With the summit just a week away, insiders believe a last-minute reversal is highly unlikely. While China is still expected to send a delegation, it will likely be led by a lower-ranking defence official — a signal many regional observers interpret as a diplomatic downgrade.

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth is confirmed to attend, setting the stage for potentially one-sided engagement as China continues to position itself as an alternative security partner in the Indo-Pacific amid President Donald Trump’s assertive trade and military posture.

“The Shangri-La Dialogue is always uncomfortable for the PLA,” said Ely Ratner, former Pentagon official for Indo-Pacific affairs. “Most defence leaders in the region are clear-eyed about their biggest threat — China’s coercive behaviour.”

Internal military turbulence in China

The move also comes against the backdrop of internal shakeups within China’s top military leadership. President Xi Jinping has carried out an ongoing purge of the Central Military Commission (CMC), the body that oversees the People’s Liberation Army. FT previously reported that General He Weidong and Admiral Miao Hua had both been removed. Dong himself was reportedly investigated, though two sources say he appears to have been cleared.

The uncertainty surrounding Dong’s attendance adds fuel to speculation about continued instability within China’s military elite — a sensitive issue for Beijing, which is trying to project consistency and global leadership amid international criticism.

Missed messaging moment for Beijing

China’s absence is notable given the current geopolitical backdrop. With the Trump administration’s protectionist trade agenda ramping up, China has sought to frame itself as a more reliable partner for Southeast Asia. It has launched diplomatic and media campaigns depicting the US as a bully and itself as a champion of smaller nations’ sovereignty.

But Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute argued that China has squandered a prime opportunity. “With questions swirling around whether Hegseth would attend, the potential for US disengagement could have become the dominant narrative,” he said. “But now Hegseth is attending and Dong is not. China seems to have missed an opportunity to portray itself as the more reliable and engaged great power in the region.”

Looking ahead

French President Emmanuel Macron is scheduled to deliver a keynote address at the summit on May 30, underscoring the event’s continued international importance. But without a senior Chinese voice at the table, the Dialogue may be defined more by China’s absence than its presence — at a time when regional tensions over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and broader US-China rivalry are increasingly top of mind for Indo-Pacific defence leaders.