From Buddha trails to boardrooms: India-China thaw to unlock billion-dollar tourism flows

India China

The borders are bridging as direct flights, tourist visas and travel to key pilgrimage routes have resumed following the improved diplomacy between India and China which will put tourism back on growth track.

The restart of direct flights could lift travel by 30–50 percent, Bharatt Malik, Senior VP, Air and Hotel Business, Yatra Online said.

The renewed friendship comes at a time when India’s tourism industry is targeting $56 billion in international receipts by 2030. "If even 2 percent of China’s outbound travellers choose India, we are looking at 3 million visitors and nearly $6 billion in annual inflows, fueling not just tourism but India’s image as a global cultural powerhouse," said Dr Vikas Katoch, Founder and CEO, Adotrip.com.

The diplomatic thaw comes at a high-growth moment for Indian tourism, Malik said. India’s outbound travel is growing fast, consumer spending abroad has more than doubled, and forecasts show potential for 80–90 million annual trips by 2040. At the same time, Chinese tourists returning to India present a high-value source segment, he added.

Chinese arrivals are projected to reach 4.1 lakh in 2025, a 15 percent rise over last year, Katoch added. "This resurgence will be felt most strongly at Bodhgaya, Sarnath, and Kushinagar, destinations of spiritual importance for Chinese visitors. In addition, the Chinese outbound traveller of 2025 is spending an average of $1,850 per trip, with luxury, wellness and experiential tourism driving growth. India is uniquely positioned to capture this shift."

China has the world's largest outbound tourism market, and as diplomatic hurdles ease, a new wave of Chinese leisure travelers will look beyond traditional destinations to explore India’s rich culture and heritage, said Ankur Sharmaa, Chief Business Officer, Via.com (Ebix Travel).

Travel doors open

Travel platforms are already seeing India-China friendship opening travel doors.

Pilgrimage routes like Kailash Mansarovar are reopening, tourist visas are back after nearly five years, and that sets the stage for more cross-border travel, said Sandeep Arora, Director of Brightsun Travel, India.

"We expect stronger inflows of Chinese visitors to India’s heritage and wellness circuits, while outbound interest from India to China will also rise," he added.

Since the resumption of the Mount Kailash and Lake Mansarovar pilgrimage earlier this year, 750 Indian pilgrims were chosen through computer-based lottery from around 5,500 applicants, noted Govind Gaur, co-founder and CEO WanderOn, a D2C (Direct to Consumer) travel technology firm.

He said that one of the initial batches, including 45 pilgrims with 13 women, successfully traversed the Lipulekh Pass during early July and continued into Tibet through road-based routes. "The initial traction indicates high demand and we anticipate an incremental increase in pilgrim movement over the next several months."

Dr Vandana Singh, Chairperson of Aviation Cargo Federation of Aviation Industry in India (FAII) pointed out that the reopening of Shipki-La pass could catalyse border tourism in Himachal Pradesh’s Kinnaur region, an encouraging sign of growth beyond the usual markets.

Katoch said that nearly four out of every 10 enquiries they receive today are for Tibet-bound pilgrimages, reflecting both pent-up demand and the emotional significance of the journey. "We anticipate higher movement in the coming months as the window for travel remains favourable."

Arora sees a substantial opportunity if the thaw between India-China continues. "India saw close to 174 million air passengers in 2024, making it the third-largest aviation market globally. Even if a fraction of that volume expands through renewed India-China travel, it represents meaningful growth for the sector. For India, this means new demand across cultural, wellness, and Himalayan tourism segments."

China - a strategic source market

India once welcomed nearly a quarter of a million Chinese visitors every year, with arrivals peaking at 251,000 in 2016, Kotoch said. "These travellers weren’t just tourists; they were seekers of India’s culture, spirituality, nature, and business opportunities. From the serenity of the Andamans to the spiritual magnetism of Bodh Gaya in Bihar, the untouched beauty of Mizoram and Arunachal, and the wellness traditions of Kerala, Chinese travellers explored India across dimensions, including leisure, pilgrimage, cultural immersion, and business."

According to him, what made this segment special was not just its size, but its potential. "With rising spending power and growing curiosity for India’s heritage and experiences, China became one of India’s most strategic tourism source markets before the visa suspension in 2020."

Singh noted that 339,442 Chinese tourists visited India in 2019 and about 142,000 Indians traveled to China in 2019 up from 100,000 in 2018. India’s overall inbound tourism reached 10.93 million visitors in 2019, but plummeted to 2.74 million in 2020 due to the pandemic. By 2024, it began recovering again, reaching 9.66 million international tourists.

She added that India’s outbound travel has been bouncing back fast with 13 million Indians who traveled abroad in 2022, enabling India to recover 61 percent of its pre-pandemic market.

"Together, reviving these flows with China could re-energize both inbound and outbound corridors, especially as India races to become the world’s fifth-largest outbound tourism market by 2027," Singh said.

Flying direct

The India-China reconnect has also resulted in resumption of direct flights which Arora said will be the single biggest enabler.

Before the suspension, five carriers – Air India, China Eastern, China Southern, Air China and China Airlines connected the two countries, and their return will make trips more seamless for both leisure and business travellers, Malik noted.

Manjari Singhal, Chief Growth and Business Officer, Cleartrip said that with the revival of direct flights, they expect a gradual path to recovery in travel and a significant boost in interest for destinations like Mount Kailash and Lake Mansarovar.

"We have seen strong demand and most dates in August were fully booked for the first Kailash Mansarovar Yatra after Covid. The yatra concludes in about a month, and based on this year’s response, we expect both the quota and participation to increase further next year," Malik added.

With direct flights being restored, travellers will no longer need to book multiple connections via Hong Kong or other hubs, eliminating the need for double visas and additional costs, Karan Agarwal, Director, Cox & Kings, said.

In 2019, there were around 539 direct flights a month between India and China and about 18 per day.

Annual scheduled flights peaked at 2,588 in 2019, facilitating movement of over 890,000 passengers across direct routes between India and China, pointed out Govind Gaur, co-founder and CEO WanderOn, a D2C (Direct to Consumer) travel technology firm.

However, Arora noted that all of that stopped in early 2020, which cut demand sharply. "Even restarting with 35-40 weekly flights would be a strong catalyst, reducing travel time, costs, and making both leisure and corporate travel far more feasible."

Corporate connect

Agarwal expects MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions) and corporate travel to lead the recovery in travel between India and China, driven by trade fairs, sourcing trips, academic exchanges, and cross-border collaborations.

Arora said that this segment is important because these travellers bring higher spending power and repeat travel.

In 2019, nearly 22 percent of the overall Chinese visitors to India were business delegates and a significant number of Indians were sent to China for corporate, trade and MICE-related activities, Katoch said. "Sectors like IT, pharma, manufacturing and textiles have long leveraged this corridor. As ties revive and bilateral trade edges back, we’re entering a new phase where MICE and corporate travel will be the accelerator."

Before the visa suspension in 2020, China was among the most sought-after Asian destinations for Indian travellers, Katoch added.

"The profile of visitors to China was both diverse and high-value, ranging from corporate delegations, MICE groups, and students, to families visiting relatives and leisure seekers. Flight booking data on Adotrip from 2018-2019 reflected this momentum clearly. The majority of bookings to China were routed via Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Kolkata airports, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou emerging as the top arrival cities. We saw a strong mix, nearly 60 percent business and MICE-driven travel, while 40 percent leaned towards leisure and student mobility," he said.